Running discussion on SP, page-49271

great post tendoji. That poking of the fire has made a few embers glow. It’s all opinions and I agree and disagree with various aspects of your post .
We are all trying to figure in relation to what gives best sp prospects and Chinese involvement is only of interest in relation to this . From drc point of view drc quite rightly want best for drc people and govt and in this respect I think Avz ( who have shown great stewardship and respect and consideration for people ) must be drc’s favourite for future ongoing stewardship . Agreed here . Then we have global commercial reality . Drc need help to unlock their resources , they also need to sell their products , develop infrastructure and their economy . China can’t be ignored but maybe they’re influence can be pushed back a little … for a while . The west wont come to drc aid Imo. The resource will effectively go predominantly to Chinese in one way or the other or be very much under their heel .

the Chinese state control all Chinese companies . Period . The Chinese state will control countries (let alone companies ) through economics . Period. Yibin is controlled by catl and catl is china’s chosen child in ev battery tech to lead the world .
There will not be inter-Chinese competition (refer alibaba ). Drc will not be able to move significantly against Chinese interests now , if Europe themselves can’t . Maybe 10 years ago but not now . I don’t know all the history around who owns what but I do believe that the only chance of this not ending up (effectively ) in Chinese control is that if USA or Europe weigh in with a huge JV with associated infra and developmental package . And this isn’t looking visible as yet (I think unlikely now going further the usual consumer card now focussed on other challenges). I don’t think they are worried (now) where the battery tech comes from . Who builds the cars ? Yes.
I agree that a western miner JV partner will be no more generous than the Chinese. That’s not my point . My point is that I believe this is destined for Chinese control one way or other . Firb , by blocking , seemingly saved Avz from Chinese . Not so in my view . It cost Australian economy far greater than value of Avz and I think firb now realise that next time (now WA li miner future guaranteed) that the answer if asked again would HAVE to be yes.
In answer to why Chinese haven’t got this before . Simple IMO. They were planning a very cheap acquisition based on long game . Covid , Felix power move and massive li price turnaround were not expected . Now they playing a little catchup but catchup back into pole position to deal with new landscape is where my money is .

these just my thinking . Everyone has their own beliefs . Who is holding the sp back and why ?
The why is the main question ?

So if right I think sp prospect from here is good but limited to less than spreadsheet values . If Avz can progress to being the company that control and mine this prospect (even with a JV) then great and also then spreadsheet valuations are truly possible and I for one certainly hope this is the case as it means they can sell into the global market , at profitable prices . But evidence so far is that the first raft of sales will go to China . Can’t see that pattern changing and who is going to come in outside of China and effectively build, take on debt and operate the initial years just to feed Chinese converters … ?


All good thoughts , opinions . These just mine . P