RLT 1.78% 86.0¢ renergen limited

Ann: MULTIPLE PHASE 2 HELIUM SALES AGREEMENTS SECURED, page-268

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  1. 4,134 Posts.
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    Another thing that may not be clear to the market is how profitable the Virginia Gas Field could be once operational coupled with the potential magnitude of the reserves.

    Just 3-4 years ago helium prices were US120/mcf and operations could make money at 0.3% helium concentrations as I understand it. I dare say Renergen with 80% of Phase One at US200/mcf and the remainder at spot about US280/mcf and average 3% concentrations could make I'm guessing 50% profit. Phase Two could be even be more profitable depending on the fixed pricing agreed to if closer to US280/mcf for instance.

    Then the LNG pricing could also have towards 50% profit margins if you consider this extract from a post from @zmickeyzee1

    "The average LNG price for July 2021 delivery into Northeast Asia was estimated at about $12.10 permetric million British thermal units (mmBtu), According to interviews and research. Renergen will be selling anywhere between $18-$20 mmBtu throughout South Africa a premium to prices globally,"

    Then consider there are still only about 123m shares in Renergen and what's in the ground is owned by shareholders. Looking at helium by itself at Virginia excluding LNG, Evander and cryo-vacc potential.

    The Virgina low case could potentially be about 40bcf of helium which at assumed avg sales price of US280/mcf:

    Potential low case Virginia helium revenues = 40bcf x 280/mcf = US 11.2 billion = AUD 15.25 billion

    That equates to potential revenues at 123m shares of about AUD $124 per share if there is no dilution for phase two. Then consider if there is 50% profit the profit portion would be $62 per share.

    The potential middle best case reserves update which I believe is statistically a good chance to happen would mean about 120bcf of helium reserves so then three times the size of the potential low case of 40bcf of helium!

    Obviously if the reserves were to be updated to 120bcf of helium it will takes decades to sell the helium given globally usage today of about 6bcf of helium per year but regardless helium is a critical element and Renergen should have no problem selling it over time just the prices could increase over the years as less and less helium is left on the globe.

    Anyway 50% profit margins on the helium is just a guess and happy to hear others thoughts on how profitable the helium sales for Renergen could be not forgetting the processing costs to extract the helium must be very favourable also with the high concentrations of about 3% about x10 the 0.3% average helium concentrations in the US for instance.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3456/3456600-a9ac058cb7d43f1aea591e974192b806.jpg

 
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