Don't forget the random and non-rational effect of an announcement out of the blue. IMO it is a great punt - I have bought 500.000 for $1000 – interest rate something between 5 and 6%. Opp Cost of $1000 = $60 a year. Within a year is highly likely to have one (and only one) good announcement saying BS and the good old fool market will react pumping the price up totally irrationally...I’m selling say at 0.7c or 0.8c having a return of 300% or $3000...
Cost = $60
Risk = $500
Reward for fooling the randomness = $3000
One year from now that hasn’t happened I’ve lost something between $60 and $500 (worst case scenario) and life goes on...best case scenario, the announcement actually happens and I have a free holiday in QLD...
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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