Thanks for the input
@2ic.
To be called the ramper makes me laugh a little because it's a little out of character for me, but I guess looking at my posts I can't oppose that label.
Nonetheless I'll explain my reasoning, it's not that I want to fool anyone or just be unrealistic, it's generally not in my nature to emphasise only one side of the coin. However in situations where one side is being favoured in such a way that it's inherently causing an in-balance (admittedly perceived from my perspective) I think it makes more sense to try and create balance rather than provide a balanced view.
Bottom line is that I personally feel SFX is a strong buy at 35c, and frankly, if you aren't selling then so do you (at least a buy, maybe not a strong buy, but I think you might even think it's a strong buy) - so to be true to my view it makes sense to paint the picture such that others, at least, don't conclude that they should be sellers. I'd be happy for someone to conclude they should be a seller at 35c because of their own informed view, but if they conclude to sell at 35c because of a balanced view provided by someone else then I feel it's an investment mistake made by someone possibly unable to make a fair risk reward assessment relative to this particular share price (a sp I believe is affected by many factors which are making it difficult for the sp to find fundamental balance on its own account).
Anyhow back to the main topic, I agree that we shouldn't use short term spikes as long term assumptions, and that was the reason I wanted to know what you thought a reasonable long term Ilmenite assumption might be.
I think SFX are great at being realistic in their forecasts, for example using a long term FX of 0.75 when others are happy to opt for 0.70, and using TZMI (usually conservative) pricing instead of picking other favourable prices.
Let's hope that finally management have a surprise up their sleeves which will please us rather than disappoint us, I frankly am eagerly awaiting upcoming announcements and do feel like i could be pleasantly surprised, and if not then I won't be blown away, because I surely know that is a possibility
(20min delay)