Positives
MACD is above the sig line
Stochastics are still in the bullish zone above 50
Negatives
MACD
Histogram is lower than the last bar
Stochastics are both trending down
Closed lower than the open & below the last three closes
Outlook
The old resistance area around 0.15 – 0.165 was decisively broken on Tue & is now being retested in a normal fashion That area should now become a significant support for the future if the retest is successful.
Thursday & Friday were net selling days however so there will likely be some residue from that on the next bar.
There are a few levels of interest lower down that may also be tested in the coming week as part of that process, namely the rising trend projections around 0.14 & 0.13. Those are also Fib levels that regularly get hit in the normal course of things.
The overall trend is very bullish & will remain so even if these lower levels are reached during any short term pull back.
Weekly
Positives
MACD is above the sig line & rising. Histogram is above zero & rising
Very high Vol
Negatives
Stoch 5 is below the sig line
Stoch 14 is below the sig line
Failed to hold the highs & closed down in the low side of the range
Closed above the trend channel
Outlook.
The action last week far exceeded my expectations but was welcome. I think it has run ahead of itself a bit though & we are seeing some profit taking.
My weekly models are still showing multiple buy sigs so I expect to see a higher high than the close at least but whether that can translate into a higher high next bar I doubt at this stage.
Despite the very impressive volume last week (the 4
th highest weekly vol since 2014) the result in the end was overall net selling of -3,394,830.
Reported shorts from Tue up to Thu were again quite high & increasing although the reported outstanding opens dropping to below 1mil. on Mon.
Support is currently around 0.15 then down at 0.135 to the 50% Fib level.
I know that no one will want to hear it but a full 61% retracement to 0.12 – 0.125 cannot be ruled out over a week or two but at this time I am not looking for that.
Initial resistance is 0.16 – 0.165 then back up to 0.175
For those that like patterns, a cup & handle looks promising which if it completes in the next week or so will generate a target around 0.34 but for that pattern to materialise there will have to be a lower sp first.
So, with the few negative aspects showing it looks like the sp will come off some more in the short term but wont affect the trend much imo.
A few more announcements will keep the trend going.
Monthly
The monthly chart is showing the breakout continuing & a retest underway.
The high so far has reached the L/T down trend resistance & may be the month high but there is plenty of time left to break that L/T down trend.
The volume so far after 10 trading days is the 5
th highest in 7 years. With another 12 days to go that should be right up there with the highest.
This is the clearest indication that could be given that we are undergoing a profound change & AGY is being recognised at last.
Go AGY
