weak week of presure, page-21

A large retrace on announcement, will only occur if Shell take up the option, but do not commit to drill. In the event Shell take up the option and commit to drill, you know there is at least a 50% chance or more of success. 3 Things to remeber when analysing where the SP is heading post announcement:

1. Shell #1 Global 500 Ranked Company
2. 2D,3D and CSEM now conducted over the prospects
3. Shell announce to drill = pay day

I can see a lot of people jumping on the FAR boat after a positive announcement, given there will be ~50% chance of success, Shell will have completed a thorough analysis and their involvement will provide the perfect environment to see the SP flying.

If both the option and drill are committed to, no reason why the SP shouldn't be about 40c. In the event of such an announcement, the potential will be published and people will begin to take even more notice, Shell is willing to invest ~70/80 million on this project (given current contract terms). Taking the investment alone into account we should see ~10c added to the SP, then people will look at the success factor and they will add to SP value and finally the potential for more gas/oil to be found in FARs permits.

Holding with confidence.