Answering couple qns (attempting) in this post so not replying to individual qn...
PCSK9 inhibitors are not new, there are a couple of approved compounds, but they are expensive to make and require a 1-2 weekly injection so a pain in the butt, literally.
NYR's compound is orally administered, expected to be a daily capsule at this stage, and it could possible be combined with a statin into a single capsule, so very easy administration (this is why NYR is looking to monetise early with say Pfizer, who commercialised Atorvastatin (Lipitor).
Their Phase one is safety, but they will also take blood tests before, during and after to show the impact on LDL. So it will be a very powerful study (in terms of moving the share price
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Pfizer knows if they combine something with Atorvastatin, like a PCSK9 inhibitor, assuming its safe, this becomes the gold standard therapy, and they can hit reset on a long patent in this space. Another +$200b of revenue maybe?...
Just throwing some #'s around From Wiki - Pfizer sold $125b (id say USD) of Lipitor from 1996 -2012 when it came of patent... What's that worth in 2020 dollers..$200b USD?.
Now, NYR just received patent in USA until March 2038...
Atorvastatin took 10yrs from patent to get approved, but they needed to prove link between high cholesterol and other major chronic diseases and causes of death to ultimately get approved (as well as safety obviously)... This is the heavy lifting done for NYR-PCSK9i. So its more likely 4 years than 10 to get full approval, Safety and efficacy. That's over 12yrs of remaining patent life in the USA...
The deal a Pfizer might look to offer if they are looking to hedge bets is an upfront cash payment plus a royalty.. Something like $50m + 2% royalty... Royalty on the $200b of sales would have a simple NPV of something like $1.2b with no upfront cost, no inflation or sales ramp up, and a 10% discount rate.... Smokes shocked myself with that one.
If Pfizer sees higher risk in approval they might not offer the cash or reduce it and up the royalty to 4-5% more than doubling the royalty NPV... IF they see it as lower risk, they will just buy NYR. That number would have to be something like double market price post results for anyone to consider it.
Very speculative here now... get to about 45c leading into trial as it starts to get real. A successful phase 1 could expect to see +100% gains, so to say 90c ($150m mkt cap). Then a shotgun deal from the likes of a Pfizer at double that so say $1.80. That's only $300m mkt cap. TBH, I'd feel a lot was left on the table if that was the scenario when looking at the revenue potential.
GLTAH, DYOR as this is very out there and a bit of luck needed on the trials etc.
Cheers.
(20min delay)