MAKO is as much a gamble as an investment.
You have to look at possible scenarios and risk-weight these according to your own best estimates.
Here is an example base on estimated likelihoods of MAK (and corresponding MAKO value) price in the 1-2 weeks BEFORE expiry date (last few days - ie some chance of price rise with expected bullish ann. and last chance to sell MAKO) - these are only guesstimated probabilities, think of your own equally bad guesses for your own analysis. Excel is great for this.
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I haven't included the complexity involved with tax here, which relatively reduces option value for >12 month holders (IE optionholders that convert reset the CGT date to the option conversion time whereas heads would already be nine months in by then).
I have been deliberately pessimistic in likely SP future to allow for repeat market meltdown (25% chance IMO) and risk of the enterprise not being viable. I have also been somewhat pessimistic on the upside, with IMO a much better chance than I have used here of values over $1.00.
Note this method takes into account all outcomes (I have assumed zero chance of a SP >$2.50 in nine months)
My numbers suggest MAKO is a better deal assuming my probabilities are in the correct ballpark.
Based on these numbers the relative extra value of MAKO vs MAK would be zero at a MAKO SP of about 7C.
It is worth doing these numbers for yourself with any share or option you buy based on a best estimate of likelihood.
Please don't criticise my probability assumptions as rubbish - they are off the top of my head and only for illustrative purposes.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
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7 | 4483545 | 0.011 |
7 | 4679547 | 0.010 |
6 | 3255500 | 0.009 |
2 | 320000 | 0.008 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
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0.014 | 2183982 | 8 |
0.015 | 2748633 | 11 |
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0.017 | 2816529 | 7 |
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