Fair Value For FMG, page-21

Without the ability to do the calculations I look at fair value this way. Safe to assume FMG isn't going broke. So at the moment the PE is 4.42 and the div 14.2 - never seen that combination before unless the company was going out the backdoor fast and about to cancel dividends. So how will these two figures reconcile? Sure the dividend will come down but still among top payers - say 7%. So how's the PE going to normalise? Earnings will fall but not enough to get it, say, above 10 unless IO price goes well below $100 which makes it damn hard to see the share price falling further (in anything other than the short term) in order to normalise that PE.

Just feels like things have overshot to the downside like they did to the upside. Unfortunately we are all more cool headed and calculating on the downside.

Just conceptual stuff I know.