hanging in the balance, page-11

Steven - I used ranges - and note the 80-90c range is twice as big as the 75-80c range. I chose those ranges because 70-80c is obviously a critical tipping point for the options.

I absolutely agree there is a good chance for a rush up with a good ann, and I gave a total probability of 40% of the heads being 70c or over. There is a good chance of the SP being lower than today if the market capitulates again. It went very low last time and could do that again. Also if bad news is released - such as indicated elsewhere on this thread - that Wonarah turns out to be non-viable - or even the risk of this increases as the announce they can't find water - then this could easily trash the SP back to 10c. From following specs for some years I have seen this happen to many very promising companies with supposedly great prospects. If anything I may have underestimated the potential combined downside from either market wobbles or non-viability.

I also strongly agree that there is potential for a good run up on the heads in the next six months when you still may see a premium on the options - noting that the later this takes to occur the less will be the premium on option price.

Time will tell.

I do agree though that the options are worth a small investment as a punt but don't get attached to them!