Now that the Covid -19 downswing of cases has stabilized, it's worth taking at look at what the USA case number look like, and what that might look like in terms of treatment and Novartis royalties.
From our friends at the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-use.htmAt the lowest point ( and this is prior to the latest Delta variant ramp up ) ventilation had dropped to 2% of all covid-19 admissions by the end of March 2021 from around 8%.
The current hospital beds used for Covid sits at around 65,000.
However the daily number of hospital admissions is currently trending up through 10,000 per day.... the lowest it ever got to was around 2,000 admissions per day, back in Jul
Using a median figure of 5,000 admissions per day which is significantly understating it ( by 100% at present), and the median recent percentage recorded for ventilation use of 5%, that would give a conservative figure for ventilation of around 91,000 cases per annum..... we can remove the over 65's, which account for roughly 33%, which leaves around 60,000 cases to be treated by remestemcel
With the companies initial ramp up designed for only 20,000 cases per year, they would only be treating 33% of patients.
75,000 USD x 15% royalty x 20,000 cases = $225,000,000 USD profit.
This excludes all other milestone payments that would typically be enough for the company to fund itself, and assumes novartis is paying for manufacturing and scaleout as they suggested. Also, this represents 10% of the annual profit for CSL last year funnily enough.
10% the CSL share price is around $30.00.
The actual number treatable today is over double, meaning only 1 in 6 would get treated using 20,000 doses per year.
Bring on the announcement! EUA please !
(20min delay)