what will it take - go up!, page-24

Credit Suisse 24/08/2009 1 Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral $35.00 16.1%
Today's report doesn't clearly explain why, but one can only assume the decision to upgrade the shares to Outperform was driven by value considerations.

The analysts note a strong copper price should support their case. The $35 target price has been left unchanged.

No changes were made to forecasts.

Deutsche Bank 18/08/2009 3 Hold $30.00 2.1%
The FY09 profit result was a little better than Deutsche expected. Otherwise, the minor earnings trough and slightly lower gold production of this year should now be past, thinks the broker, who has pencilled in a 20% net profit increase for FY10.

The broker also sees some possible upside to that forecast if copper can keep performing. Still, the Hold call is maintained, as Deutsche thinks the stock is "fairly valued" given it is trading on a 24x PE and at 1.85x valuation.

UBS 18/08/2009 1 Upgrade to Buy from Neutral $34.00 13.6%
The result was 4% above UBS estimates and 3% up on consensus, but it is the recent share price fall that leads the broker to upgrade its recommendation on the stock to Buy from Neutral.

Given NCM owns what UBS sees as some of the best gold mining prospects in Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, the broker expects exploration to generate extra value.

Production guidance from the result was as expected, while FY10 gold reserves were lifted by 7% to 42.8Moz due to Cadia East and Ridgeway Deeps increases.

RBS Australia 18/08/2009 1 Buy $33.57 12.5%
Target $33.57 (was $34.48). Earnings for the year were better than the broker had expected and it notes the strong cash flows mean developments should be able to be funded without gearing moving above its target of 15-20%.

While higher capital expenditure in FY10 sees the broker's valuation and price target come down it retains its Buy rating, with the stock its preferred gold exposure in the Australian market.

Macquarie 18/08/2009 1 Outperform $38.00 22.7%
The broker already had Newcrest down as its preferred gold sector stock, given the strength of its business, low geoploitical risk and a positive gold price view. That Newcrest's result has come in both ahead of the broker's forecast and company guidance only reinforces that view.

Citi 18/08/2009 1 Buy, Medium Risk $34.70 15.3%
Citi says Newcrest Mining has turned in a pleasant dividend surprise (A15c a share unfranked) with this year's result, which was slightly ahead of market expectations.

Citi says the dividend reflects confidence heading into FY10 and reduced operating costs and capital expenditure.

It maintains its Buy rating and $34.70 target price.

BA-Merrill Lynch 18/08/2009 1 Buy, Medium Risk $47.00 37.5%
The full year result was in-line with the broker's expectations and the FY10 guidance was positive, it says.

However, Merrills has not pushed to the upper end consensus given it sees FY11 earnings reduced by non cash expensing on waste and inventory. This belief sees the broker's FY10 net profit forecast lift 22.2% on the positive guidance, but drop 10% in FY11.

The Buy call and target price are maintained.

JP Morgan 27/05/2009 3 Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight $32.50 9.6%
Target $32.50 (was $33.25). Changes to its commodity price and foreign exchange forecasts see the broker make minor revisions to its earnings estimates, the result being a modest cut to its price target.

This change sees the broker downgrade its rating to Neutral from Overweight.