VMS: Riley Iron Ore Mine - Profitable or Not?, page-102

ShareBeers

Below is how the Ultramax rates have moved over the last 18 months for trades I have been involved in which are going from the same location to the same destination, just to give you an idea of the market behavior.

Nov 2019 USD21.75 p/T
Nov 2020 USD22.50 p/T
Apr 2021 USD39.50 p/T

Best prices for a Sept/Oct shipment received for the same trade as above, USD48.50 p/T, from a week ago.

I really hope for all holders that VMS can get better rates, but you must understand that shipping rates are calculated on a day rate pro rata for the voyage from load port to discharge port (including estimated load time and discharge time etc), plus vessel positioning costs to Burnie, and of course bunker prices.
The per tonne rates is calculated by the overall charter cost (as detailed above),divided by the tonnes loaded to get a per tonne rate.
If VMS can jag a ship offloading geographically close by, then positioning costs will be minimal, but the day rates for the voyage stay the same.
Another factor with VMS shipments is they will have dead weight cargo on board any ultramax they charter because they are unable to load the vessel to capacity due to draught restrictions in Burnie, so the per tonne rate will be higher due to underutilized capacity .

It probably isn't a good idea to compare shipping rates with FEX because they have used Panamax size vessels which are good for ~75Kt on board, as opposed to Ultramax which is good for ~55Kt.

Economies of scale kick in with the larger bringing down the per tonne rate overall.

IMO
DYOR