Hi JK,
sorry, but they are some seriously big IFs...
Luckily we have quite a bit to go on from the past owners providing MRE in 2017 and 2020.
Plus Primary also did a pre-feasibility study which showed that 65k ounces could be mined profitably, at an AISC of $1340.
Grade at 1.7g/t for an open pit is good, even if they have to truck it 45km. Whilst more drilling has been done since then, I don't feel like you are going to see 15 year mine life from the resource as it stands (sure, drilling success could happen etc, but I am just looking at what they have bought).
For what its worth, I think its a great purchase, albeit, they have paid top dollar, but then... they had to (IMHO).
Very low upfront costs to mine the ounces investigated in the PFS. Costs will have gone up... by at least 20-40% (i.e. AISC closer to $1608-1876)
Luckily, the POG has gone up, so that higher costs can be forgiven.
The company has at the least, likely extended the mine life by 2 1/2 years, which is almost doubling their current mine life. That is a good outcome for $14m
The Hanking MRE is not very good overall, as really, they have simply added more ounces and lowered the grade... because they have likely used a higher AUD POG for the cuttoffs. Tycho looks to be very low grade, but.. maybe BCN can cherry pick it etc.
Like some posters, my guess is they will at the least, bring the amount of ounces in the JORC back to say, 200k. Then perhaps convert 40% to reserves, so, 80k ounces (almost 3 years of production).
With 80k ounces, they paid $175 per ounce. Which is still good, because its simply a satellite deposit (not cheap at all, but... still profitable for BCN).
Anyway, just offering a view on things from a non-holder, that has been a little critical of BCN not moving faster with acquisitions. This would seem to give them a lot of breathing room and some more exploration upside.
Good luck to all holders.
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