I don't think we will get such high valuations.
The best comparable companies for IM3NY are Freyr and Microvast.
Freyr has licensed 24M battery technology and has initial plans for 43gwh factories by 2025 and 83gwh by 2028. Freyr already has about $800m cash, which is enough to get about 21gwh up and running.
Their revenue forecast in 2025 is $2.9 billion (43gwh) with an EBITDA margin of 24.4%, giving $703m EBITDA. This indicates $66m/gwh of revenue and $16m/gwh of EBITDA.
Freyr has a big advantage in operating costs given it has access to super low electricity costs in Norway, and is targeting costs of $62/kWh in 2025.
Freyr is listed on the Nasdaq and current market cap $1.05bn and has around $800m cash, giving it an Enterprise value of just $250m and an EV/EBITDA in 2025 of 0.4x.
Microvast is the other competitor and comparable company. Microvast is already producing battery cells and it's 2021 revenues are forecast to be $230m. By 2025, it forecasts to have $2.3bn of revenues and with an EBITDA margin of 20%, will have EBITDA of around $465m.
Microvast already has a 2gwh battery plant in tenesee and has plans to have 11gwh by 2025. It already has contracted revenues of around $1.5bn and has a further $4.1bn of imminent contracted revenues in the pipeline.
Microvast market cap is $2.55bn and has cash of around $800m. This gives it an EV of $1.75bn and an EV/EBITDA in 2025 of 3.8x.
Both Microvast and Freyr have higher energy density batteries and are more advanced in fast charging technology than IM3NY already. Microvast has the higher valuation currently due to it already having the battery plant in place, whereas Freyr has more blue sky upside from its 43-83 gwh factories.
In Summary
With regards to IM3NY, I see more similarities between IM3NY and microvast, since both are located in the US and have similar aspirations. IM3NY is about two years behind.
If IM3NY can show that it will scale it's battery factory from the current 1.8gwh to 5gwh in 2023 to 15gwh in 2025 and that it will have similar revenue and EBITDA margins (20 to 25%), then there is potential for IM3NY to have a market cap of around $1.5bn ($1bn less than Microvast) with a similar $800m raised for expansion to 15gwh. This would mean the EV of IM3NY would be around $700m, of which Magnis owns 63%, or $440m. In AUD, that would be A$620m.
I would then add on the value of Nachu and the 33% share in IM3TSV, which I think is around $120m, giving a total market cap of $740m.
Magnis current market cap is $330m, so $740m would mean a share price of around 81 cents
A lot of Magnis upside is given away since we dilute ourselves through a US listing.
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