It really depends on what managements plans are. They've raised capital (and said they could use it to pursue acquisitions) and they seem to want something in order to replace the lost tonnage from Acland. It seems strange to raise capital and then just give the money back via dividends.
So what are they planning on buying? and how much money they need to fund it?
There are definitely a lot of assets around at the moment with a number of sellers.
NHC has mentioned they wont buy any asset that doesn't have a long mining date on it. (which makes sense as they've been burned by Acland).
The following is just pure speculation on my part;
In the back of my mind. I do think they will buy Mt Arthur. It seems like a logical fit. They understand the coal seam well, and its directly across the road, so synergies will be available.
BHP is a known seller. They've gone through a lengthy process, NHC and WHC dropped out. But BHP re-added them to the process. (Why? NHC probably dropped out as it was too expensive and they had no funds available). Yet no announcement has been done. And now NHC has raised funds and reports say BHP has dropped the asking price by half a billion dollars.
The whole process is taking much longer than I expected. I suspect because they are trying to get the government to agree on an early extension of the mining lease. (currently until 2026??). All of these things seem to imply NHC is ready to pounce and are in detailed discussions.
Perhaps BHP think they'll get a better price if they get the extension first, and are happy to keep mining while prices are high to get one last bonus.
Perhaps i'm over thinking things and NHC have other targets in mind. To me its irrelevant what they do. If they buy something, then they will get more production for what will likely be a bargain basement price, as it would be hard to overpay in this market. But if they don't, it stays a simple operation and the dividends will flow. Both have benefits.
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