probability calculations, page-9

re: $2.20 dont you mean hdr broker/advisory valuations of ROC that I've seen recently are for ROC in the range of $2.00 to $2.40 per share on a pre-Mauritanian-drill valuation basis. This compares with HDR valuations of around $2.00.

Both have the potential to be worth a lot lot more if the Mauritanian drilling program meets with any level of success on any of the new prospects (With HDR having more leverage at current prices).

Holding both HDR and ROC. Could expect to see both of them through $2.20 pre drill, although HDR are more likely as are currently much closer to that price.

Short term drivers for ROC, excluding Mauritania, include:

- drilling in Western Australia (37.X% of a potential 100m? barrell Fiddich prospect) commencing sometime next month or so, I think,

- 100% of Willows (UK, potential 100 BcF),

- Cliff Head FID (final investment decision expected Q4),

- decision to trigger commencment of exploration work on their onshore Angola (Cabinda) acreage (someone indicated that Doran was currently in Angola), and

- secondary listing on AIM in the UK as of early September 2004.

Decision on the future of their China assets(!?) if not well received could be a short term negative. However, I imagine that most market participants would already have built in a no-go expectation on this.

Cheers
OG