Iron ore already hit $35 a ton in Dec 2015 without a recession.
1 China developing its own mines low cost mines in new guinea.
2 Brazil increasing production.
3 China reducing consumption by 30% or more.
4. China developing high cost iron ore mines to be self sufficient.
5. China developing large scale mines in Africa.
China will pay initial higher prices for commodities or operate at cost to maintain price control over commodities.
You are dealing with a command economy which is closing its markets to the world.
They can afford to open high cost mines as the value adding results in losses being recouped in steel production, world infrastructure projects,loans to countries and domination of their other resources in return.
Even if their mining costs are double they can recoup that easily through supply chain value adding.
They are using infrastructure and debt to dominate countries which achieves their goal.
They are likely to operate mines at a loss to gain a strategic military, political and other benefits,
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