AVA chart, page-554

I'm not sure it means anything that the shares down from 55c given there is no new information available to anyone at this stage

I think these are going to be key dates:
- end of the quarter for Aura IQ confirmation (although I sense that this could slip to AGM date given covid lockdowns in Vic and presumably lack of access to QLD & WA where I assume their POCs are happening)
- 28th Oct for AGM approval of the capital return (perhaps ATO ruling will be communicated to the market earlier)

Based on current price and assuming the capital is returned:
- we have a business trading for ~34c (or 83m MC)
- International logistics business that will deliver ~0.75c (1.8m profit) by end of Sept
- a Perimeter Security business that should deliver a similar number for 1H22 if you include 2.6m in IMOD revenues
That means that on 1H21 EPS of ~1.5c which is based on relatively moderate revenues (& no contribution from BQT or Aura IQ), you have a business trading on ~11 times earnings

Upside => BQT which has great margins, and then Aura IQ

I suspect that if they have no Aura IQ contract by 28th Oct, the price will come under pressure, but with their backlog and positive statement in their presentation ("strong uplift in Q1 FY2022 orders.....and building on $4.3m FY2021 backlog") they have earnings to support a reasonable 1H22 result.....after that, it's challenging unless they have a couple of orders with IMOD margins (does not even need to be that size, just the margins need to be similar).

Reasonable risk/reward at this price IMO