General PSC Chat/Discussion, page-666

Thanks for the kind words.

There are almost always alternative materials which can be supplemented in manufacturing. however there's generally a trade off in performance/cost.

For the NdPr case in permanent magnets I believe they've proven they can supplement portions of that with La/Ce. cheaper input yes but an overall poorer product.

I think this is very much the case for lithium. whilst there are alternative materials which could be used, there's generally a drop in performance. for example sodium ion batteries could be produced but are heavier and don't hold as much charge. that said if lithium was to go asymptotic, the raw inputs for lithium into the battery manufacturing could make this a sensible alternative in lower range applications.

It's similar for say electrical circuitry/supply. there are better conductors than copper. but it only makes sense to use them where required. noting that the more cheaper alternatives adopted the higher those prices go and so balance is generally restored.

So there are alternatives and if lithium runs away totally in the future the stronger the push to develop technology in the other areas to balance this we'll see. also higher prices means more mines are profitable and more marginal or previously unprofitable projects get developed.

until you see a number of the manufacturers actively altering battery chemistry it's safe to assume it's lithium dominant for now. it takes a number of years to develop and commercialise the battery side and then that's only part of the story whereby then they need to be able to sell the car.

my instincts tells me that in say 10-20years time, we'll probably have a few different types of options from manufacturers in terms of the their anode/cathode selection. all with potentially varying specs. lower range cheaper models perhaps using an alternative. I still expected the standard NCM batteries which utilise lithium as the anode to dominate the market.

the people suppling the products generally just want to be at the lower quartile for costs so you can remain profitable in the major pricing cycles. it's very unusual in commodity markets to have a product selling for multiples over its AISC. 100%-400% margins across a sector generally don't last long term. other supply fills the void or alternatives are sought which lessens demand.

even for large commodities like IO and Cu which are fairly robust markets there are a few projects and companies which enjoy this margin due to the relative inability to swap out the element to a suitable alternative. probably see lithium in a similar light.

SF2TH