Currently Ganfeng has annual capacity of 81,000 tons hydroxide. They plans to increase to 100,000 tons hydroxide annual capacity by 2025, their main focus will be on Argentina and Mexico clay deposit for next few years. Also they have a big plan to produce 600,000 tons LCE annually by 2030. According to my limit research, they have secured about 350ktpa lithium deposits (by acquisitions and offtakes), is far from their 600ktpa target. The secured 350ktpa lithium material supply is on the assumption of all of these lithium projects to be mined by 2030.
Here's my early summary posted few weeks ago, should add CXO's 10kt LCE offtake, total lithium material supply is about 350ktpa.
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Ganfeng secured current and future lithium supply:
- Mt Marion: Current
~59kt LCE
- PLS: Current
~23kt LCE + Future (stage 2)
~22ktLCE
- Mariana: Future
20kt LCE
- Lithium Americas Cauchari Olaroz
30kt LCE (2022) + Future (stage 2)
15kt LCE
Recently 4 acquisitions:
- Minmetals: 10kt LCE (industrial grade) - Acquired 49% stake for US$225m
- Bacanora: Future 17.5kt LCE (stage 1) + 30kt LCE (stage 2) - Acquired 71.12% stake for GBP£190m
- Millennial Lithium: Future 24kt LCE – Announced cash offer for CAD$353m
- Mali Lithium: Future ~33kt up to ~67kt LCE – Acquiring effectively 45% stake for US$130m + funding US$62m
Currently, Ganfeng has 82kt LCE spodumene for their hydroxide capacy (80ktpa) and 10ktpa brine, by next year, Cauchari Olaroz should come online, then another 30ktpa, total lithium supply will be
122ktpa LCE by 2022.
They also secure ~23ktpa LCE spodumene from another African developer from 2023, total future secured lithium supply are about
223ktpa LCE based on all of these projects are fully developed.
Ganfeng's total current and future secure lithium supply are maximum at
340ktpa LCE.
To achieve the maximum capacity of 340ktpa LCE supply, it will take years.
Even achieved the maximum capacity in a few years, the
340ktpa LCE is
just half way to their 2030's target of
600ktpa LCE. Based on historical data, many producers couldn't achieve full capacity. So they will need to secure more to meet their target.
To achieve their 600ktpa LCE annual production by 2030, Ganfeng needs to acquire at least Further 5 to 10 projects, imo.
GLN, HMW, likely to produce at least 25ktpa LCE; Candelas might be 15ktpa LCE, combined annual production would be 40ktpa LCE, imo.
Ganfeng announced 5 acquisitions over last five months, about one acquisition every month.
Let's wait and see what their next acquisition will be.
All imo.
(20min delay)