***** WLE Chart *****, page-34

My theory is ... The mega tranche institutional placement that Wilson did in a block trade listed about a week later after the retail issuance of shares ... it took the price a bit before it drifted down from the initial retail placement. Retail got theirs around 13-Aug price approx 1.47 - 1.515 on the day.
1 week later when the institutional placement is issued, price drops to a low of 1.44 for a brief period and then seems to hover around 1.45 - 1.46

There would have been retail (existing) investors take up the 20% offer + top up with the intention to offload for an instant capital gain. In theory capital earning 1% in the bank (over 1 yr) vs an easy (let us say) 5c gain (3.47%) quick gain (2 wk holding costs).

When the insto tranche is then issued further downward pressure comes into play. This may have also spooked some of the retail investors that didn't take advantage of the gains the week prior especially if they were on 'borrowed' money i.e funds they couldn't fully commit for the long haul.

I fully agree there would have been a good chunk of applications that had always decided to keep for the long haul as well and some of those may have even seen it as a further reason to top-up on-market when the price came back to around the $1.45 mark (the stable floor).

For the record, we purchased 20% for a long-hold then went hard on the top up facility then disposed of the top-up shares on-market the day we got the SPP placement. 5c / share was seen as 'easy money' and know others that followed the exact same path. We deemed the risk was worth it for the short time involved (unless covid-delta--delta appeared and mutated us all in that time).