mae & mac monday, page-5

SPI finished at about a 13 pt premium so is it an outlier (out and out liar)?

Not necessarily.

On Sep 1st we got the first premium since early June and shorting it was hard to resist. It was the correct move then.

Since then SPI has been a more or less neutral so this premium may be a sell but looks more like a gradual move to premiums.

From the July lows it was my opinion that the upmove could not have a serious decline until SPI started seeing regular premiums.

Sep behaviour suggests that at least the overly bearish SPI is easing. That puts us into a slightly better picture for getting towards a top.

Regardless of when the absolute top day is, I doubt we see any major sell off until after expiration on Sep 17 here and more importantly Sep 18 in the US.

Sep 21 was the XAO/XJO 1987 top here which is the Monday after US expiration.

Back then we went contra US a bit until early Oct when all went pear shaped.

There does seem to be this emphasis on Sep being a bad month so it seems likely that any decline will be after everyone relaxes not before.