Regardless of my cycle views which are bearish from anytime now I use a very simple basis for my long term holdings.
The fund holdings are as simple as using a Wilder moving average I have used for 20 years. Not very sophisicated I know but mechanical enough to eliminate too many switches and capture most of the major moves.
My long term futures positions are just a little more nimble but still limit too much action.
My views on long term cycles do have an influence on position size in that I may keep a little more in cash when I feel the cycles are not favourable.
Likewise in my playmoney game, I will up the ante when I am with the cycle rather than against it.
I know better than to fight the market even when it seems to be against the cycle as short term action will sometimes be against it and the cycles although often precise can sometimes have conflicts that leave me unsure of precision.
And I still get it wrong sometimes and that is a good thing as there is nothing worse than being sure and being wrong.
It keeps you from being fixed to a position. There is a balance that each must find between being flung from day to day to a new position and being fixed to a rigid road map.
Have I worked that out exactly? No, but it is improving. Give me another 3 lifetimes.
Someone quoted Jesse Livermore I think it was as saying that after many years he found that long term positions were far more profitable than short term trading. In my early days my broker used to cal me "The Long Rider" as I could go months without a change in position. Yes it was boring but I have probably never been more profitable. It was that process that allowed me to turn 5k into 3.5 million in just 18 months back in 1984/5. That is not a boast but something I think about anytime I start to get too excited about chasing every minor trend change.
Boring is good if you want to make money, but it isn't fun. That is why I decided to allow myself playmoney so that I can have fun. If I have a good run with my play money then at set limits I move the excess to the slow money.
Is that hard to do. You have no idea, lol, and I have succumbed to to the dark side more than once and usually paid the penalty of returning gains that I should have moved to slow funds.
I still mostly regard trading as a game and just a bit better than doing the crossword each day. I have never really cared about making money other than a measure of trading success. If I had a dollar or a billion I know it wouldn't make one bit of difference as I lead a simple life and like it that way.
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