I'm going to disagree slightly with you there Split.
I guess if you are looking back on it in hindsight its all very well to say that the move from 8.0 cents on the 2nd August as you say to 19.0 cents close yesterday is all about the PLS Auction prices BID and TAKEN.
However I would argue this is a very narrow view for a couple of reasons at least.
FIRSTLY , the announcement by PLS was on Friday 30th July at 9:25 AM in the morning so the whole day was available for Sayona to respond to this announcement . However the Sayona SP only responded some 3.79% by closing at 8.2 cents from the previous days close of 7.9 cents on the 29th. Even on Monday the 2nd Aug , the SP gave up 2.4% to close at 8.0 cents.
Even the PLS shares which were in suspension for 4 days from the 27th through to the 30th - when they opened up on the first day following their announcement , they only increased a modest 7.62% when they closed at at $1.905 after hitting a high of only $1.955 from the $1.77 on Monday 26th July.
Even when you compare to the Global Lithium ETF which many people do , it only increased a paltry point 12 of a percent from Friday the 30th July to Monday 2nd Aug and was actually down 1..74 % one day later on the 3rd August.
But if we just look at the details of the first PLS auction , you will find that they stated they had a total of 17 bidders bidding in a range of between US$700 and US$1250 and so obviously went with the US$1250.
So my SECOND reason or observation for refuting this ' Hindsight ' view is that if we assume the pre-auction price was say US$700 ( which I believe was more like $900 ) , the percentage gain from $700 to $1250 would be around 78.6% and yet it took a whole 7 days of trading for the Sayona SP to achieve its first 50% milestone breakout increase to 12.0 cents , and where it took another 2 trading days to put on a further 16.67 % to close for the FIRST time at the previously much earlier predicted 14.0 cent level where it then hovered in a range + 3.5% to - ( 14.3% ) for a further 9 trading days ( with a low of the 12.0 cents on the 23rd ) to the 24th August and one day before the listing of the new SPP allocated shares on the 25th Aug.
During that same initial period to Friday 13th of August , PLS put on only 31.6% to its share price before immediately dropping back 5.6% on the Monday 16th and even a further 8.2% when it closed at $2.02 on Friday 20th August . So that's a total give back on their 31.6% of 13.8% to that date even though their FIRST Auction price increased 78.6%. Interesting that the Lithium ETF increased only a total of 12.0% from the 27th August ( PLS auction announcement ) and Friday the 13th Aug , and then gave back 7.34% in just the following 2 days trading to 17th August where its only recover 4.78% from that low in a month to Friday 17th September.
So looking at the second PLS auction released at 7:07 am on 14th September or only 3 trading days ago announcement , the PLS SP replied with an immediate 2.7% on day one of the announcement and 11.4 % on the day 2 .....and where it ultimately settled on Friday with an increase of only 4.0% since the announcement. whereas the Sayona SP responded flat on the first day on the 14th ,12.9% on the 2nd day , and obviously 22.6% on the 4th day following as against PLS's 4.0% and the ETF's move of minus 2..68% from the 14th to the 17th Sept.
So if you use a starting price of US$900 , the relative moves are even less when compared to the relative moves in the corresponding SP's.......and so while it its rather nostalgic to reflect back that this is the overall reason l that Sahona's SP has increased some 137.5% in total across the TWO auction announcements just because the auction prices have is a little bit misleading in a sense that not everyone's have including the main beneficiary being that of PLS.
So I think it is somewhat dangerous....especially to new investors to break it down this way and suggest that this is the main reason in ' Hindsight ' because from what I can see , and what I previously saw in Sayona is that it is less about substantiating the rise after the fact of these announcements when in Sayona's case , it is clearly more about what we've acquired , the value in multiples of our previous NPV as to what it ( this acquisition ) has attracted now as well as the HUGE expanded resources it obviously came with.
So the lesson here is that you have to do your homework and research well BEFORE you get an announcement which at best has hardly moved the needle of PLS or any of the other benchmark indicators and that the market has seen and been prepared to re- rate Sayona off the back of its NAL acquisition and forecast exponential NPV values at more than just these sample auction examples which don't really support the thesis entirely. If anything , they are only a reassurance that prices will remain buoyant for some time to come.
And look at Sigma Lithium where they haven't really moved at all from the second PLS auction announcement - and they are a daily advance and high quality pocket . Even the BIG Lithium heavyweight is off 3.56% since Friday the 13th August and only 20% ish up since the 27th , but 1.57% down in the 3 days from 14th Sept to 17th Sept.whereas Sigma is up 46.75% from 27th Jul to 13th Aug ( roughly same as Sayona ) , and 54.31% overall to the 17th Sept. Keep in mind that Sigma has had 2 KEY announcement during this period including one which sets out their future plans for a NASDAQ listing. Prior to this they have had another 4 KEY announcements in the same time that Sayona has many multiples of this due to its Acquisition of NAL and all the other surrounding developments with other more ' satellite ' projects . So a lot of anticipation and expectation with Sayona due to this Acquisition .
So I guess what I am saying is that you need to work the numbers , research , analysis and reasons on a FORWARD looking basis , and NOT be concerned so much so with the explaining's as to why it has happened ......after it has already happened.
(20min delay)