The problem with the markets is they are simply way over priced. When fundamentals and technicals don't agree fundamentals will win out in the end. The main problem now is who is investing long term? Who would really put their life savings into companies including mega caps with P/E's of 40+ or thereabouts. So now we have a market that has become a casino for short term/day traders only.
Remembering that the 2019 fall (I don't call it a crash because of the intervention) was also due to happen not because of the virus, although that exacerbated it but because the markets were overpriced. Check the S&P 500 P/E ratios from then to now and it makes you very nervous. All because central banks decided to injected liquidity and created a massive asset bubble.
We have China beginning to contract in parts and US companies starting to revise earnings estimates down. We know the global economy is slowing down. We have central banks beginning to ease and we know that interest rates are going to go higher no matter what they say. We also have a massive housing bubble in progress. And being honest in Australia's case with IO collapsing we are in real trouble.
Think it was the CBA (one of the major 4 anyway) that already called us in recession. Yet markets and housing at all time highs? When the shoe drops and all that short term money heads for the door things will get very ugly fast. Only my opinion but a matter of when not if. Only thing I worry about is its retail that gets caught every time whether in shares or housing.
I still remember the aftermath of the 1980's and what happened to housing and markets. Mind you I was working in real estate back then and it was a very very long time before anyone started to show interest in housing again and prices started to recover (huge fall too). Just stay nimble make money while you can but whether we go up or down over the next few weeks IMO we are headed for a crash eventually.
How long? Relative to the stock market in the not too distant future. Now you all know why I am on the sidelines and my thoughts from past experience. BTW "this time is different" is what has always been said. Pity we always forget history always repeats, cause we never learn from past greed. Back to streaming on that cheery note hehehe.
P.S. This is not aimed at anyone bull or bear just concerned the market movers know how to fleece all us retail so couldn't help mentioning it whether I'm right or wrong. Oh and no I am not calling a crash just saying eventually, think a correction first TBH then re test of old highs (maybe a slight move higher) then well I think parcel the parcel might be done hehehe.
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