Banter and General Comments .. BRK, page-1372

There is nothing wrong.

As the @Professional has mentioned we are now essentially in the hands of mother nature, but the reservoir engineer still has some role to play as adjusting the chock size can affect the flowback .( but that is more tweaking at the edges than the major determinant)

Below I have roughly sketched 2 possibilities where the blue shows the well responding immediately with a much faster increase in oil/ gas production and shorter period to max flow ( blue).. The green line shows a slower increase in oil and gas production, a longer period to max flow. ( green)

Typically , the longer it takes for a fracked horizontal well to reach max flow, the shallower the decline . The best result usually occurs when the well starts to flow hydrocarbons early in the flowback , has a shallower rate of increase . At the top of the curve, you want the max rate to be approached slowly because that usually means a longer plateau at the higher flow rate which typically translates to a longer flush production period before the inevitable steep decline.

Hopefully the Jewell is tracking the green line . I can't say where we are on the line ATM. The longer it goes , the rate of increase moderates but for example, if in week 3 the flow is 1400 BOEPD, in week 4, it is at 1500, BOPED , week 5 it is 1550 BOEPD, week 6 it is 1575 BOEPD, week 7 is is 1580 BOEPD, week 8 it is 1575 , week 9-15 it plateaus around 1570 and then starts its decline ....

Is much better than...

week 3 production is 1650 BOEPD, week4 it is 1720 BOEPD , week 5 it is1800, week 6 it is 1810 BOEPD , week 7-12 it plateaus around 1800 BOEPD and at week 15 it is down to 1400 BOEPD with a steeper decline than example 1.

The well is a success...BRK have given enough verbal and visual ( DP's Cheshire cat smile in the procative video) indications without being specific that the well is performing at or above base modeling at this stage. Patience is required as there is no time limit ( to answer your question) the peak rate is important as a headline maker, but we wont know for 6-9 months at least to find how good a well Jewell will be.

Hold the line , don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!... and don't shit yourself in the process.

Cheers

Dan