new cdc guidelines should boost revenue, page-3

Albie,
The broker is conservative in estimating the Relenza sales.

From BTA announcement on 31 Jan 09 on the UK Order:

10.8 million courses = Aud 18 million royalty
There fore 1 course = Aud 1.70 at 7% royalty = Aud 25.00 sale per course.

1 billion UK Pound sales p.a = Aud 1.9 billion sales p.a at Aud 25.00 per course = 76 million courses p.a

GSK production capacity as at Jun/Jul 09 was 60 million courses p.a. and triple to 190 million courses by 31 Dec 09.

Thus the broker estimated the sales at 30 million courses to 31 Dec + 46 million courses 1 Jan to 30 Jun10. Put in another way, he estimated only 48% of the 190 million courses p.a production capacity will be sold. (46 million for half year = 92 million courses p.a = 48% of the 190 million production capacity.)

As a result of Peter Cook talking down the demand for Relenza, most brokers forecast sales way below the 190 million p.a production capacity.

There are articles after articles posted in HC showing the demand for Relenza is hampered only by the lack of production capacity. If you look at Tamiflu sales, you will see that GSK production capacity is seriously inadequate.

Quote: ”Global sales of the antiinfluenza medicine Tamiflu (oseltamivir) rose 203% to 1.0 billion Swiss francs in the first half-year, following the rapid worldwide spread of a new strain of influenza A/H1N1 (‘swine flu’)” and
“Responding to the current pandemic threat level, Roche and its network of manufacturing partners have scaled up Tamiflu production and by the start of 2010 will be able to supply up to 400 million packs annually, should the need arise. In addition, Roche some time ago granted sublicences to three manufacturers to produce generic oseltamivir for pandemic use in China, India and specified developing countries.

Source of information: http://www.roche.com/med-cor-2009-07-23-e.pdf

With the growing awareness of the problems with Tamiflu (viral resistance and psychotic effect on young patients) why is Tamiflu out selling Relenza?
Why is Roche increasing production to 400 million packs which is more than 2 x what GSK is planning?