50 buck bet to your favourite charity, page-68

lol Geeze we are still going on this thread

Lets get the context of the debate right

Its September the bet is about 31 Dec so we are a little early for the victory parade :)

The bet was not a trading strategy I am very happy for all those who made money on the rally, excellent trading folks:)

Nor did the bet reflect my personal trading strategy I am definitely not in the red (by much)

When were down in the high 11s I did definitely think the market had lower lows

I still do

Yes I underestimated the extent of the rally but when I realized this I stood away

We are still a long way from previous highs but my scenario is where the US double dips is definitely still in place

I can still build a strong case that this is a strong counter trend rally

Ok thats an unpopular case at the moment, folks want to do the victory lap and put it all behind them

Give it a 3-6 month period and my belief is that folks will be commenting that I may have had the timing wrong but the overall scenario right

The bulls here might be thinking well I got some timing right but the overall scenario wrong

There are still some gobsmacking risks to the global economy a lot of the greenshoots chatter has no foundation in the underlying data

if we look forward there is an impending RE crisis yet to hit the US market which can fall under the heading AltA, Variable Arms, Commercial Loans, this starts to bite this month.

Unemployment is turning down again and has much further to run on the downside, we are only 17 months in my view is this is a 30-35 month crisis

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

One of the central aspect for a credit based economy is whether lending is expanding

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/consumer-credit-contracts-record-216.html

Yes I am a bear at present , I started to get bearish in early 2007. In my view till we get a decnet expansion in credit , rising job demand and some sigfiant change in trade data in Germany, Japan and China the bearish case is still in play.

Yes it unpopular here but lets see how things play out

As far as the bet goes lets see how things play out I think the risk is getting higher I have my timing out but I certainly havent got the overall scenario wrong

A lot of smiles will disappear if we undergo another downturn :)

In any case I donate money to charity all the time so a few 50 dollar bets paid to people that need it is money well spent. I have no problem losing bets or getting things wrong, its all sport, folks who have to much ego wrapped up in their predictive powers usually lose in the longer run

I have been trading since the mid 70s I have seen lots of downturns , folks are pretty predictable in each stage, the bears always get to negative near the bottom and the bulls get to positive in the rallies, very few folks get the turns and if they do they do get a few right, they dont consistently get the turns