wealistic wednesday, page-54

Continuing on with this closer look at what seems to me to be happening with the S&P500 and how that may point to future direction, last night did not break to a new high so after the high of 1039.47 on 27 August, we had 4 trading days into the low of 2 September and now 4 trading days up since the low and we're still below the high. That says to me, "up trend weak if not ripe for a pull back".

The 1/8th extension of the rally 8 July to 7 August is 1036.5 and that was where the index stalled last night. It should have gone through here and if it doesn't tonight there's problems with the uptrend imo.

That last range down which I called Retracement 2 has 1/8th of it's range at 1033.5 and the index closed a fraction of a point below that level. Minor bearish signal.

Unless the index moves up tonight with no difficulty I am thinking that the sellers could get control here into early to mid next week. What after that? The guesswork increases.

Factors to suggest the index is running a 90 day low to high from 8 July:

a. There was a high at 30 days from low on 7 August.
b. There was a low 10 days from that high on 17 August. That move from high to low was 1 days off a 1/8th division of 90. A low at 45 days on around 22 August (a Saturday) and not 40 days on 17 August would have been clearer but there were other cycles at work and I would has it a guess that the 180 day cycle may have pushed the index up early??
c. There was a high 11 days from the 17 August low on 28 August (1/8th division of 90).
d. There was a low at 56 days from low on 2 September (5/8th of 90 days).

So if that is what is happening (an immanent pullback as part of a greater 90 day low to high from 8 July), the index must move up into the second week of October for a high. That would probably mean this next pullback, if it happens in the coming days, would be the last one of any significance before the index moved up into the 6 October time window.

A lot of speculation there, but that's my best guess atm.

However, for time being, the index is testing the 1037 resistance level for the 4th time and that carries the probability of going through so still no position for me while we are at what appear to me to be a fork in the road.