longt,
A stab at a valuation for LT is as follows:
1 - Reserves basis:
On 2P reserves of 453PJ, that equates to 78MMbbl. ROC recently sold 10% of BMG to Pertimina for about A$14/bbl - looks like a fire sale. This would equate to a valuation of A$1.1B. BPT sold 10 last year for a lot more.
2 - EBITDAX multiple basis:
If LT will deliver A$70/yr for 10-12 yrs at discount rate of 10% is about A$450m + premium for upside of say 50%.
Patersons has a valuation on LT of A$212M (June-09)
Hartleys has a valuation on LT of A$270M (June-09)
Southern Cross?
Valuation of oilers is very challenging and depends on a number of things - upside, acquirer - passive investment or operatorship, net-backs...
Who know what someone will pay?
shrewd management, page-8
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