chart, page-6

true but,

there have been large volumes of shares traded between 12-14.5c this is what i believe makes the pattern strong.
extract from website posted before:

The above chart illustrates the sequence of events that unfold as the pattern develops. After a nice rally (preferably on solid volume), the stock begins a long drawn out correction. When the pullback begins, many stockholders decide that after the nice rally, they now would like to take profits up near the peak. There were also many late-to-the-party buyers who bought at the peak, and as the stock starts to drop, these stockholders have one thing on their mind – to “get out even.” These two groups will create selling pressure when the stock regains strength. Months later when the stock trades close to the first peak, stockholders jump at the opportunity and start selling. Thus a second pullback begins. A line drawn through the two peaks forms a trendline. This second pullback is very healthy and normal for a strong stock or a stock that is gaining strength. Since stock movements have such a large psychological component to them, it is unlikely the stock will enjoy any type of rally as long as there exists many disgruntled stockholders. It takes time to weed out these weak links. Once enough time has passed (the formation of the handle), the stock is free to move higher for there is now an absence of stockholders who will sell at the first good opportunity.

Capital raising only strengthens CTP's position, it is now funded to be able to complete phase one with or without JV partners, JH has expressed this. Before this raising there were doubts on how or if CTP could proceed without these companies.

I will also include some fundamental analysis i have done:

Major Shareholder:
22/6/09- Strata gas group- 30m shares @ 10c

RICHARD WADDY FAULL- DIRECTOR – 2,281 100
William Dunmore- Director- 776666
HENRY ASKIN- Director- 2,400 000
JH - 5 683 803
Directors hold total: as of 11/9/2009
Ordinary shares: 11, 141, 569

Or 1.93% of company after cap raising
At shareprice of 14c= $1 559 820

or also including strata gas group 7.1%
This is not including the other top 10 shareholders as I dont know the proportion of shares bought with raising.

CSG HIGH ESTIMATE POTENTIAL RESERVES:
Pedirika 70TCF
Horn Valley 90TCF
S.G. Basin 50TCF
Magee 0.8TCF
W.H. 2.7TCF
Kitty 3TCF 250.5TCF

P10- 10% probability that reserve equals or exceeds these values.
Pedirika 70TCF P10. Rest are not stated.
1TCF= 1050 PJ
1 PJ= 1050 x 10^6 GJ
Lowest transaction according to Good Oil Conference was BG/PXA= 40c/ GJ with an average of $1.25/GJ. For these calculations I have used 40c/GJ
1050x10^6 x 0.4c= $420m Per TCF inground value of CERTIFIED 3P reserves.
Company could potentially certify 1TCF p/a.
NPV of $420m p/a for 250 years 15% discount rate= 2.8 Billion
Discount this to be concervative due to unknowns that may delay drilling and certificiation.
NPV ($210m p/a) = $1.4bn
NPV ($105m p/a) = $700m
These represent 1TCF/500BCF/250BCF certification per annum respectively.
Or you could just look at it this way:
If 1TCF is proved in the next 12 months, there will be an asset recorded in the companys balance sheet worth $420m less costs of development. Or 72c/ share
250BCF- $105m or 18c/ share
Oil potential:
S.g. 650mmbl
Dune 175
Avalon 50
Madigan 400
Beja 125
Devon 5000
H.V. 10000
Other 320 15950 million barrels

Assume P1- 1% probability of success
159.5 million barrels of oil
Inground value= $10 per barrel
(other companies use $10-15 2P)
$1.595 Billion Value in ground
Company has shown that it wants to exploit and sell reserves. See sept 09 ‘Good Oil’ Announcement. Following this costs of approx $20 per barrel and sale price of $50 per barrel you can see this would significantly increase value of these assets.
OIL NET TO CTP= 55% = $877.25m
Assume 5 years to certify.
NPV with discount of 15%= $182m
Add Low estimate- 31c/share
HELIUM

Helium extraction plant built in Darwin, currently operating at .01% helium concentration.
Helium prospects have shown concentrations of over 6% with a high percentage of nitrogen. Only 1% of the worlds discovered helium reserves are at this high concentration. This making it much more profitable to extract and sell in a more concentrated form.
I believe helium has the potential to add enormous value to the companies balance sheet once certified.
I do not know the value of helium in ground due to insufficient evidence of companies buying/selling certified deposits.
Retails for between $60-100 per thousand cubic feet.
Estimates of approx 200BCF of Helium
Assume P10= in ground $1.2 billion
P5= $600m
P1= $60m
P10- 10% probability of success
P5= 5% etc
P10 can be correlated closely to 3P reserves.
This helium could be certified to 3P level within 18 months.
Add between 10c/share to $2.07/share
Prospective Syngas reserves of 10 000TCF is an added bonus, I have attached no value to this because for it to become an economically viable energy alternative govt needs to impose tax on current carbon emissions.



Conclusion:
Company is worth $80m at 14c per share.
I think a realistic target for next 12 months could be between 30-50c.
Calculations have not included operating/capital expenditures since I belive they have been captured with my concervative discounts/probabilities.

BOW ENERGY CASE STUDY:

November 2008 – Market Cap $29m
Company states 6.2TCF potential
Shareprice = 19c
30 Jan 2009- starts drlling program to certify reserves. SP= 30c market cap = $45m
March 2009- Company states 19.85TCF potential
There has been 250BCF certified at 3P level.
Share price $1 cash $22m Market Cap $209m.
September 2009 – Market Cap = $315m $20m, cash share price $1.50
Certified reserves= 664BCF
Using the 40c/ GJ calculation = in ground value of $280m + 20m cash= Market CAP is a $15m premium to in ground certified reserves.
APPROX 32c per BCF that is certified using this method.

Bow energy has few joint venture partners, no helium, little oil potential.
Headed by great management who started up Arrow energy, one of the largest CSG companies in Australia.
BOW believes It can certify 900BCF p/a with little help from JV partners.

AS USUAL THIS INFORMATION NOT INTENDED AS FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND REPRESENTS MY OPINION ONLY. MANY CALCULATIONS INVOLVE ASSUMED FIGURES AND CONSERVATIVE VALUES. SOME CALCULATIONS BASED ON PAST INFORMATION AND DO NOT REFLECT CURRENT MARKET PRICE. ALWAYS CONDUCT DUE DILLIGENCE AND THOROUGH RESEARCH BEFORE PURCHASING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT.