More prattling on to follow.........
Most of the upside gas shares I own are dealing with prospective resources. That is:
p10 - p50 - p90
All long term holders know that TSV have upgraded to contingent resources. Which means the gas is definately there.
TSV have already released independant estimates in their Feb 2009 presentation:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090212/pdf/00926829.pdf
On page 12:
NOTE: normally these are presented as GIIP (Gas Initially In Place) TSV have given the more informative (less ramping) figure of actual recovery.
One of the best ways to put a value to these estimates is to use recent market acquisitions. TSV do this on the following page.
Comparing to CSG is generous - those boys are just starting to figure out the inherent complications with that resource.
The only step to be taken to upgrade to reserves is commercial flows. Which is pretty much a known fact.
That above value of Warro - equates to over 20 cents per share.
I am willing to concede if everything goes wrong - it is only worth 10 cents per share.
For those who are new to prospective resources / contingent resources and reserves. The following table explains it best.
That is why when companies give you nothing but p10's of GIIP, they are feeding you high levels of rubbish.
