Indeed @PieChart. We did have an earned advantage. I, among many others, sold CLQ/SRL and purchased PM1/QPM in mid-2020 when the good Dr made the move over.In my mind, it all comes down to risk @Carillon. QPM's risk of progressing through to production is significantly lower than SRL's risk. This is primarily because QPM has a dramatically lower funding risk due to a significantly lower CAPEX (circa A$2.75b for Sunrise v A$1b for the TECH project).
Sunrise relies on some form of a vertically integrated strategic partnership with a major OEM for financing (which would be a new paradigm for the industry), whereas QPM can progress down a more traditional financing route (40% equity and 60% debt primarily sourced from NAIF).
One can also debate the respective merits of QPM's DNi process versus SRL's IX HPAL process. Like SG, as a chemical engineer by training, I prefer CLQ's DNi process due to its environmental credentials. In addition, the industry is sceptical of unproven variants of the HPAL process (such as Sunrise) due to a vast history of HPAL failures.
I expect SRL to sit around the $100m MC level for a few more years and QPM to continue to appreciate to the $1 billion MC threshold over the short-medium term as execution progress continues to be made.
T.E.P.
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