You're right YikkaBear , I did bring the concept up . Numerous times. And at least 3 times over that last 4 months. Once in regards the ' Multiple ' Canadian Lithium HUB options ( where I provided examples of the Companies ) , once with regards to the carbon footprint CO2 atomic weight of Nemaska's Lithium spod verses the cost of producing on site at NAL of the closer HUB feed-stock of Authier and Tansim et al .....given the extra distance for Nemaska to its proposed site , and once more recently when I wrote the piece on the strong ties of Quebec Graphite and Lithium ie Nouveau Monde Graphite & Nemaska which even predates Palinghurst's current involvement in Nemaska and what it may generally mean for the Quebec battery minerals industry overall.
So this piece will be at least my 4th major thesis on this potential M&A and major industry posturing and forecast maneuvering's in the last 4 or 5 months.
Obviously they tend to get lost in the ' General Discussion ' thread which is one of the downsides of having just this one thread. And I remember some were saying at one point that I hadn't mentioned Jourdan Resource at least not in 2021 , yet in fact I was the first one to bring them into the discussion again in January 2021 and lost count of at least 16 or 18 posts after that where I provided research and commentary on that very subject.
So it does get frustrating at times when your work gets relegated to the archives and forgotten by others .....intentionally or otherwise. And is one of the reasons why I question the worth in doing it at all to be honest
I have the information and research myself , so it doesn't affect me whatsoever. But when you go and share it and it gets lost and forgotten only to be rehashed by someone else weeks or months later , it tends to pizz you off.
Anyway , where should we start with this particular ' Causation ' of next step acquisitions in the Moblan bolt on.
Well , I've already confirmed my belief that the Market in some ways had already known about these plans. And I've provided my exact reasoning's for this.
So I guess Why this acquisition and Why now would be more the TWO questions I would be endeavoring to answer more now . And by answering this through looking at the BOTH the relationships and perhaps further strategies , it might just give us a better idea of where to next.
So I know people are raising both the ' Tonnage ' and ' HUB ' references in so far as they relate to critical mass & future off-take available supply . But this is not a new concept because ' All about the Tonnage ' and the interchangeably applied use with the referenced ' HUB ' has well and truly been discussed in great length.
So what else would there be in these ' Commonality ' type reasons for these moves.
If we wer to use some basic words , you would includes references to the use of ' Posturing ' ' access to Government Funding ' ,' Logistics and Infrastructure ' , ' Preemptive Moves ' ( which could be regarded as posturing ....but more towards the timing of moves ) , ' Quality '( is one we've clearly discussed ) ,' Relative Price '( sort of eluded to this in recent posts by comparing acquisition costs per tonne ) , ' Market Opportunity ' ( ie the project was available and so they went for it ) , and ' Industry Trends ' ( which we've also touched on re: recent other acquisitions by CATL .....Gangfeng et al )
So let's just cover off a bit of History and Market pricing for this particular Moblan asset by comparison to say Sayona's more advanced by meters drilled and tonnage of Authier. This should cover a little more reflection to the ' Quality ' grades and cutoff which Brett has already alluded to in his quest to improve Authier even more around these parameters.
So as it turns out , Perilya picked up the Moblan Project back in October 2010 when it made a friendly offer for C$184 million ( A$186 million at the time ) for the Canadian Gold and Copper outfit GlobeStar Mining and which had Perilya's eyes firmly set on the main target in its BID being GlobeStar's base metal Dominican Republic's copper -gold -silver project . So what's interesting though is that Perilya who paid a 29% premium to the last traded price of GlobeStar shares on the 6th Oct and a 44% premium to the previous 30 days VWAP , but it was mentioned at the time that they had ONLY provided in their BID for he Base Metal main asset and therefore made no provision for the Moblan Lithium Project in their BID . I believe their CEO called it a ' Bonus ' Asset that was not intended or factored in their BID offer.
So effectively they picked up this asset for NIL cost. And that is how it's done I guess when it is calculated on the basis of a FULL friendly ALL CASH bid ......You only effectively price in the amount you want to pay for the assets that you are specifically targeting.
Perilya Ltd then turned around in October 2017 and sold it's 60% interest in the Moblan Lithium Project for US $60 million . However prior to the sale and in 2011 , Perilya updated the JORC 2012 resource ( see attached ) which stated their had been 99 historical diamond drill holes totaling 13,346 metres resulting in the then reported 14.250 Mt of Li20.
And all this compares in contrast to the' in hindsight ' also cheap acquisition by Sayona of the Authier deposit off Glen Eagle Resources back in mid 2016 for C$4 million for what amounted to more than 15,000 metres of historical diamond drilling across 123 holes and over 2,143 assay samples which arrived at an acquisition JORC at that time of 7.675 Mt of Li20.
Of course we are now sitting on some 31,000 metres of drilling at Authier ( not including current round ) across more than 200 holes , and which now represents a JORC resource of 20.94 Mt @1.01% Li20.
So effectively if you were to BUY yourself an equivalent Authier on the same terms as that of the Moblan acquisition , you'd be paying somewhere's around US$167,520,000 and US$188,460,000 (or A$ 229,479452 and A$258,164,383 ) - And that's just for the JORC resource in the ground with no economic DFS evaluations enhancing it to a value added NPV. NAL would be somewhere's around US$400 million just for its resources and not including its US $338 - US$365 million operational plant. So that's around an approximate A$1.520 Billion valuation without doing anything else on Carbonate or Hydroxide conversion.....so just for the current assets as they are , which now includes Moblan into that calc.
O.K so that covers in part ' Quality ' , ' more Tonnage ' , and ' Relative Price' and valuation per tonne + plant construction cost.
So what then when we look at some of the other factors like Posturing , Preemptive move , Infrastructure and logistics , Govt. Funding .....which ALL culminate in what obviously played out as a ' Market Opportunity ' for Sayona and something they would have had their sights and commercial conversations set on - We then have to first look to in my opinion to the Geographical locations which is currently governed and covered by the Quebec ' Plan d'action Nordique ' or Plan du Nord .
And it's interesting when you look back on the beginning's of this plan which started in 2011 with a C$80 billion 25 year expenditure plan to develop industry , mining , tourism , indigenous communities and training , jobs , and infrastructure to name a few which are located specifically above the 49 Parallel.
SO as recent as December 2020 , the current Quebec leader Fancois Legault came up with a revised and updated version of the plan out to 2023. It's probably worth mentioning that the Plan to 2020 did not even include the more ' advanced ' project of SOQUEM's / I.Q Moblan project as the MERN was using dates on mines references only up to 2014 & 2015 - whereas when you look at one of the most important ' meetings ' of BOTH the Government and the Grand Council of the Cree Nations Eeyou Ischee's which first took place in February this year ( 2021 ) . So then when you look at the Projects that the First Nations have included or considered in their ' Prioritization ' of significant projects , they actually specifically mention the Moblan Lithium Project.
So clearly there is a case of the Government's left hand not talking to the right hand and acknowledging the significants of Moblan and one of the reasons the Plan du Nord has copped a lot of criticism in much the same way as has NAIF has here in Australia.
So at this meeting in February , they ( the Parties ) laid out a plan for 3 which they decided on the FIRST Phase at this meeting a called the ' Grand Alliance ' Project . The committees which were established at this meeting themed the proposed ' Feasibility's on - Protected Areas , communications , energy distribution ( vis a vis power for mining etc through Hydro Quebec ) , transportation , and ' Critical Minerals ' with further meetings to be conducted fromAUGUST 2021 !!
And it's interesting when you read some of their concerns and why they first wish to address the major Infrastructure improvements in order to make the proposed projects more viable. And obviously we are talking about a very large and Vast area similar to the Pilbara in W.A . And we've all seen how important shared and common ' Rail Access ' is to any future project. Just ask Twiggy and others who had to go to court just to gain access to their deposits. So it's a real issue. But also important and an issue which came out of the February 2021 ' Grand Alliance ' meeting was that current road infrastructure was so under spec'd that if ALL the projects were to go ahead , that there would be 180 30-tonne trucks traversing these roadways every single day
So it's no surprise that in AUGUST 2021 , when they sat down again to discuss the priorities , they came to the conclusion that the FIRST STAGE covering years 1 to 5 will see the rail infrastructure rebuilt from near Lebel-sur-Quevillon to Chaplais - and which would directly affect the logistics through to Chibaugamau and Moblan and make it much much easier in freighting spod down to perhaps a terminal in Chaplais and then Dry Bulk model containers down to the NAL concentrator. They are also proposing new rail links connecting the 257 klm's from the James Bay Hwy to Matagami as well as in years 6 through 15 ( which is further North of Moblan and more affecting Critical Minerals and others is an 544 kilometre extension of railway as well as an all winter road connecting Radisson to the most Northern Regions of Quebec up to Hudson's Bay. In year 16 they also intend on building a Port facility on Hudson's Bay as well.
So it's the old adage in the ' Build it and they will come ' ......And so Sayona has seen and seized the ' Market Opportunity ' and came for the much more advance Moblan Lithium Project ......which may or may not fit into its own HUB or indeed as has previously been mentioned another more northern HUB. Irrespective of which one it is , the timing is indeed both opportunistic and perfect in my opinion.
So we know the timing it's Opportunistic ' , but I will also show that it is perhaps ' Preemptive ' as well. It's preemptive because it makes a grab for it before perhaps others see the ' Dynamics ' of holding this ' More Advance ' lithium project assets ......not only before others think about it , but also because it is one of the FIRST projects which should benefit form the ' Grand Alliance ' FIRST Stage Plan du Nord major infrastructure spends and also spends on Critical Minerals.
It's preemptive as well because there are others who are posturing and getting set in the area. One of them is one which Sayona and its BOD would be well aware of and that is the recent spin out of Winsome Resources from MTC. And you can see by the attached Venn Diagram I have prepared ( refer below ) for you all to gain a further understanding of why they may have elected to go now on this acquisition. Another reason for the ' Preemptive ' move would be that Nemaska is somewhat distracted perhaps with its own project plans including building it own conversion facilities , but also by the fact that they are not a listed entity and therefore cannot act in the same manner as perhaps a listed company like Sayona can make its decisions. Or maybe there is even a hidden ' Kirribilli ' deal going on here between Sayona and the Plinghurst backed Nemaska. And I say this because , it's almost a tale of TWO ' Goliaths shaping up here with either a near term agreement or a future ' Battle Royale ' evolving. And you only have to take a second look at the relationships in the Venn Diagram to see the significance of how BOTH Sayona and the unlisted Nemaska are squaring off.
Now one could argue as I have previously stated that there may even be some nearer term collaboration planned between Nemaska and Sayona. And this would make a lot more sense in the overall interest and critical minerals objectives of Quebec and I.Q. But make no mistake , it is clear that I.Q is a very important and integral part of BOTH these emerging ' Goliath ' strategies.
Are there any other Interested parties or Lithium hopefuls ? And of course anyone who would have remembered , Indeed YES there is.
So when we look back at some of the 2021 recent Corporate posturings around Lithium, we interestingly come across the MTC spin out where they also did a US$5 million ( A$6.65 million ) Lithium Royalties Corp ( LRC ) deal which granted a 4% Gross Revenue Royalty and a 3% GRR over those previously held MTC Lithium assets from the 2% which had previously existed. And All of this was done ahead of it's Lithium spin out Winsome Resources's Quebec Lithium HUB asset tenements of Cancet , Adina , and Sirmac
Also in this HUB which had previously been brought up back in April / May , it was mentioned also of Vision Lithium ( Formerly Abe Resources ) who acquired in December 2017 off Nemaska , its original Sirmac Lithium Properties with Nemaska retaining a 10% major stake .
At that time, the Sirmac property consisted of 24 claims totaling approximately 1,100 hectares and roughly 180 klms North-West of Chibougamau . They paid C$250,000 PLUS 15 million in shares which were trading around that time at 39 cents .....so around C$5,850,000 worth of shares and a C$6 million total deal value..... which I guess I.Q would still now own or is part of the ongoing ' Old ' Nemaska bankruptcy administration.
In addition to their equity , they ( Nemaska) also held preemptive rights to maintain its 10% holding in any future raising's. As well as that , they Nemaska ( and now I.Q - Pallinghurst & Livent ) held additional rights including the right to purchase any concentrate from the Sirmac property for its then previously planned and proposed Shawinigan HydroMet processing facilities as well as the right to act as exclusive marketing agents for the lithium salts produced from Srirmac , the right to receive a 2 % ( in cash ) marketing fee on gross proceeds from ALL lithium products derived from Lithium at the Sirmac property and the right of FIRST refusal should the then ABE Resources ( now Vision Lithium ) decide to sell or assign its rights , title , or interest in the Sirmac Lithium Properties.
So that is an interesting side point because I think the obvious idea was that should ABE ( now Vision Lithium) go on and develop these tenements that Nemaska would absorb their product as their own feed-stock for their proposed downstream conversion plant.
So , I would imagine that these rights still vest in the ' New Nemaska ' with I.Q despite the fact that Vision went on to expand this tenement package by staking a further 131 claims in February this year bringing its total claims package now to 155 and 7,760 Hectares from the previous 1,100 which are subject to previous legacy rights of Nemaska.
And these ' New ' claims join their main lithium zone and their eastern lithium zone claims and were quoted as being for the purpose of ' surrounding and protecting ' their eastern mineralized trends which they also claim to extend the ground coverage to more than 10km to the east and southeast.
So this deal for Moblan looks to be a bit of a ' Coup ' as well for Sayona and Brett in that it counters and / or sets up in a sense MTC's spin out of its Lithium Assets which were headed up by none other than AJM's ex COO Chris ' Cherry Picker ' Evans .
So it would appear there is some scope for Sayona's Moblan to work more closely with either Winsome Resources , Vision Lithium or BOTH as well as more broadly Nemaska - with particular emphasis on Winsome's Simac - Clapier showing and Vision's Sirmac large tenements package. This is why I filled in with the shared rose colour in the Venn Diagram where the Winsome and Vision Circles overlap. They don't overlap now as it stands , but they may very well do in future.
I note also that Winsome's main project being the Cancet Project as can be seen in the attached Map has around an approximate 15 Mt Lithium Resource but is much further and remotely North in Quebec.
Even when you consider the recent appointment of Cindy Valence to the position of Sayona Quebec's ' Director of External Affairs ' , she worked at 48 Nord International who lists under their Mining Partners , the likes of Canada Economic Development ( CED ) for the regions of Quebec , Global Affairs Canada and the Quebec Mining Association. Under their regional partners , they list Export Quebec , a unit of the Ministry of the Economy , Science and Innovation as well as Commerce International Quebec which represents a region of export and promotion organizations ( ORPEX ) ....and which no doubt along with all these others would have had many dealing with the ' Societe du Plan Nord ' who act and carry out initiatives under the ' Plan d'action Nordique ' or Plan Nord.
So this is also a sign as we've previously discussed as being a reflection of the nature , quality , and workload of these significant new relationships arising from the Plan du Nord and the no doubt the many public relation announcements which will start to flow thick and fast when you're a $ Billion dollar plus Company and gone well beyond the ' Spec Mining and Exploring ' name tag that was previously applicable. These are the BIG times now , and it is blatantly obvious why Brett is using and constantly hammering home the narrative of ' It's only the Beginning ' .
If this is only the Beginning .....Imagine what the Future is.......
So having said all that folks and just to summarize everything which has been put up , have a listen to the attached Proactive Investor Video with Vision Lithium's Executive Chairman Victor Cantore.
And it's not a long video but specifically where it starts at the 1:36 minute mark where he speaks about ' The Deposit ( Moblan ) ' being the 12 - 15 MT's and around the 1.40% .......which is 40 klm's away.....etc.. And he also refers Nemaska's deposit as around 35 Mt ( more around 37 Mt ) , but you get the point in that Moblan is around 40% the size of Nemaska before you do anything else at all on the property.
And then round the 3:18 mark in the interview he compares the Province of Manatoba's Lithium environment to that of the very supportive Quebec Lithium environment where they ( Manitoba ) are trying to model themselves after this significant Government support etc....shown in Quebec And I like his use of the term ' World Class Deposit ' as Brett also has used in reference to Moblan which is currently some 3 or 4 Million tonnes more than his Godslith deposit in Manitoba. I also like his reference near the end of Nemaska ' One BIG Lithium Pegmatite ' . ....lol its like their all looking for that ' Holy Grail ' of Single bodied and thick tabular lithium pegmatites.
And I reckon we have that with Moblan as well as Authier. So I guess I would absolutely consider that it is definitely no coincidence that they are specifically looking for these sorts of deposits - But even more extraordinary, and also by no mistake, is the fact that Brett and his contacts over there in Quebec have found them. And virtually almost in succession. Quite extraordinary really.
Really good Geology advice and really good ' sucking up ' to the right people including I.Q Just goes to show that you can't get if you don't play the game , try hard , and most importantly ask the question of ' What If '.......as in.... ' What if ' we do this for you.......' What can you then do for us ' .
And I think the answer to that question is clearly there is LOTs we can do to help you Brett. But it starts with Brestt doesn't it. So credit to him and the Team which surrounds him.
(20min delay)