the buying continues, page-44

Beattle,

What has changed is BBI's free cash flow and that is due to two things.
1. The recession in Europe deepening in 2009. This has affected PD Ports and Euroports.
2. BBI's banking syndicate tightening the interest rate noose.
The corporate debt ICR is now at very dangerous levels compared to Dec 2008.
The DBCT sales process has failed. I would not have envisaged that back in December. My opinion was DBCT would sell for a very good price and clear most of the corporate debt. It has not happened.
The banks are now wanting asset level debt paid down as well as corporate debt. That is an impossible situation going forward. Whilst the banks were rolling over debt at the asset level (albeit at higher margins), now they are not prepared to even roll over the $205M of holdco debt due Oct 30. They showed their hand on July 30 when it was originally due by only extending for three months to Oct 30.
Free cash flow has gone from $250M per annum to now be $99M per annum (despite not paying BBI distributions or BEPPA interest). The last six months free cash flow was $29M. I call that a decimation of cash flow. BBI is simply being choked by higher interest charges corresponding with weak results out of the European ports.
So, in summary, the risks now are far greater than they were back in November 2008. Much greater, thus my SELL sentiment. The final nail in the coffin is a pending triple whammy dilution (SPARCS, BEPPA, cornerstone investor) but that has been covered ad nauseum so no need to go there again.