ay? ... SF2TH makes an effort to address Corridor's economics which is laudable, and has quite a following which is interesting, so many wrong assumptions it's concerning. A little fact checking might help separate ramp from reality.
BSE Toliara DFS2 production table above might have a LOM average ore grade of 6.1% but the first 13.5 years totals 300Mt @ 7.25% THM. What is MRQ looking at for Corridor then... SF2TH says
7.5% THM for a LOM comparison at 17.5Mtpa as an example. Leapfrog modelling smooths and averages grade more than a detailed block model, which is probably more appropriate when considering 'in-pit' type total grade/tonnes anyway. From the Ann Rep is the leapfrog table for MRQ's three deposits.
As we all know, the highest grades (strands or dune material close to them) are found at depth at Corridor, and the company is sensibly planning to mine from surface (3-4% upper ore is cheaper to put the lot through the wet plant than shifting around as overburden as per industry norm). So the KM has 68Mt >6% THM, probably 6.5% average, but most of this is at depth under lower grade ore. We also know that 68Mt <6% THM is spread out all over the KM deposit, around and/or underlying towns, roads etc. Hardly a sensible mine path, and some will be too deep with too much low-grade overburden to be worth chasing. A look at the detailed MRE shows us just how deep and spread out most of the high-grade ore is at KM...Similar story at Nhactuse and Poiombo, although much less tonnes, with Poimbo especially deep and on the edge of town.
I know there is outstanding infill drilling assays to come, but that is more likely to firm up the model than change the quantum of results. Ann Rep says "MRG aims to identify more than 100 million tonnes (MT) of potential early mine life, high-grade feed." at KM. Not going to be 9.4% HM average like Toliara that's for sure, might make 6.5% HM, but will probably only be 6% average from surface inside a contiguous mine pit void. I'm prepared to say the first year will be 7.5% lol, which isn;t much good when these type of mines need 30 years+ to generate any type of meaningful NPV.
Nhacutse and Poimobo are not just much smaller but also 10-15km away. Fact is, it takes a lot of time and costs a lot of money to permit and develop each new mine site (environ, community, hydro, infra etc). Simply doesn't make sense to run permit, build and run a second wet plant and truck HMC to the KM dry plant processing facility before you have to. Much better economics to increase the scale of front end throughput (mining units and wet plant) at the initial KM mine site to keep the back end (dry plant) at nameplate HMC processing capacity. Not saying permitting or community issues will be easy at KM wedged between 3 large towns, just that once it's up and running you want to leaever off that single mine and infrastructure as long as possible.
"90% recovery (assumed improvement from first pass recovery) 496,000t."... huge lift in Ilmenite recovery is a whole other assumption that doesn;t stack up. BSE gets great recovery from Toliara because ilmenite is the dominant HM, in a good size range for recovery, with low slimes which helps recovery, and no LTR roast losses like MRQ. Tweaking the met will lift Ilm recovery a bit no doubt but unlikley a lot. The very low levels of Zr and Rt almost certainly don;t support the capex for processing a non-mag con, expect a mon-mag con to be sold with appropriate discounts for third party processing (met work reported also has Zircon is 'standard grade' not premium grade).
"Ann rep says "A titanomagnetite content of 27% is not included as VHM at this stage but thisis being reviewed given the increase in iron prices". Of course they will look at every possible product revenue stream possible. Downturn in the iron ore price and forecast of lower IO prices into the future does not help titanomagnetite pricing but that doesn;t mean one can't be boldly optimistic in a scoping study (expect nothing less). Long wait for the new met work and SS some time next year though.
First up late November the KM pit optimisation work and a better idea of the tonnes and grade they optimise into a KM open pit. Market has worked this one out already me thinks, though still plenty of money to make or lose playing pump and dump in the mean time. What I can't understand is who is going to buy the news flow into a pending CR when it drops?
Good luck
(20min delay)