BBI babcock & brown infrastructure group

financial report out, page-59

  1. 7,746 Posts.
    the problem is 100% of BBI is worth $200mil(market cap) with considerable upside.

    if someone inject $600mil for a 90% stake, the net assets improves by $600mil.

    But 100%BBI is now only 10%BBI, so for 10%BBI to be $200mil requires the new improved BBI to be $2bil company.

    the original $200mil + $600mil injection only totals $800mil. yes sentiment will change and the market cap could rise beyond the $600mil, but i doubt it could improve by $1.8bil.

    that over simplifies the situation, because in reality the 10% left over for existing BBI holders will be shared with sparcs and beppa too. so in reality the 100%BBI could become just 5% of new BBI and for 5% to be worth the same $200mil requires the new BBI to be $4bil(100%)...an unlikely scenario.

    But it is my opinion that csi or any new investor isnt interested in 90%. If the csi was only interested in 10-30% stake then i think the equation might add up for existing holders.

    so it really will depend on how much csi is putting in and for what percentage. its a balancing act. the less he puts in the better. BBI only need to worry about oct/feb $400mil for now, plus some extra to ease the burden.
 
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