I go between feeling concerned and at ease regarding the permitting situation. I did notice quite a bit of support in favour of the mine by Swedes on a Facebook page where the article was posted.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence shows there won't be enough graphite to service all the battery factories across the globe (see below). I have consumed hundreds of hours of content and I have yet to see recycling as a feasible option to cater to the entire demand of the gigafactories. Also Mark Thompson has said there is no known way to even recycle graphite to be used again as anode in a battery.
I kind of see this playing out in a few different ways:
- First option. Let's say these European mines aren't approved and the Green Deal/EV legislation remains. The result of this will be further supply constraints. This means that the cost of batteries will go up, similar to what can be seen with the likes of semiconductors or lumber. Insofar that consumers may not be able to afford EVs and ESSs and may continue to just use fossil fuels where they can.
- Second option. European mines aren't approved but the Green Deal/EV legislation is repealed due to raw material constraints. The result of this is that things continue the way they are. Fossil fuels are the primary energy source and batteries and renewables are slowly added into the mix at a rate that the market desires. I'll admit, I don't see this as a very likely option.
- Third option. Green Deal/EV legislation remains and some sort of crazy advancement is made in battery tech so that only a tiny fraction of materials required for a current battery is needed. Meaning we can get by on less mineral extraction and more recycling. This option is more or less a fantasy in my mind.
- Fourth option. Mines are approved, Green Deal/EV legislation remains, recycling is added to the mix where it is feasible (i.e. https://ec.europa.eu/environment/topics/waste-and-recycling/batteries-and-accumulators_en), and the price of batteries can be more affordable for consumers.
No one likes a big open pit in the ground, but minerals form the basis of an advanced civilisation. You can't produce things like electric vehicles, computers, and medical equipment without extracting minerals from the earth. If you look around you, you will see that all the modern conveniences you enjoy are the result of minerals. There is just no way around it. If one of these protestors can show how we can have a decarbonised future
and enjoy modern conveniences without mineral extraction, then I am all ears. Once again, I don't care about being right, I just want the truth. But I have the feeling protesters haven't thought about it hard enough.
The major Swedish political parties have come out in support of more mining and fairer permitting. Northvolt has said they want to secure minerals from close to their operations, the auto OEMs seem to agree with this train of thought too. The reindeer herding, Torne river, and holiday homes may remain points of contention. Even though Talga's operations should not disturb these. Who knows what will happen though.
(20min delay)