SP as of27.09.2021 $0.031
SOE 470.5m
MC $14.58m
Cash onhand as of 03.08.21 $6.479m
$1.815m (cashat 30.06.21) +4.664m raised via 1 for 1 Right Issue RI @ $0.2 on 01.07.21quoted on 02.08.21
30.06.21trade receivable $1.4m plus inventory $388k against payable 1.5m
Keyperson
Chairman Mark Robert Puzey CA 30 years. 33 years at KPMG and 18 years aspartner – audit, governance, strategy and management consultancy.
CEO Tomasz Jacek Rudas – 2009 EY Entrepreneur of the year, 2 companies underhis management were in Voluntary Administration AnaeCo and Aurigen, theprevious version of M8S
Strength
Fully integrated Business model
Maddington Facility constructed and commissioned 2014 re-opened August 2019after 2-year remediation and upgrade. Leasehold 14.5 years remaining.
Historical performance of Maddington is $700k per months at a margin of 28%circa $200k, (*2.1m per quarter and $588k EBITDA)
21Q4 revenue of 3.16m Maddington achieved EBITDA of $225k, 7.1% margin andimproving due to pivot to metal recycling (excluding R&D grant of 480k), Q3EBITDA $208k. Started accumulating Class II waste (higher margin) - food,plant material and contaminated solid waste.
Weakness
Financial debt $11.5m ($3.5m in BG) @ 14%interest to fund construction of Gingin Landfill and Gingin is used as asecurity. As a commercial banker of some repute, I predict once Gingin isoperational for 3-6 months i.e. May - Aug 2022 this debt can be refinanced byany of the big 4 at around 2% interest rate over 3 years on a bill facility.
Listed on December 2019 IPO $0.2 MC $46.6m EV$33.4m top 20% held 78.9%, currently over 70%
Overseas entity has controlling interest in thisbusiness SBANG
Garbage is not sexy...
Opportunity
Gingin landfill with technology ensuring organic waste can be broken down and methan gas emissions are minimal. Freehold going concern value on asif complete” basis is $56m*. It is expected to be completed by December 2021and operational Q1 2022. EPA equivalent Department of Water and EnvironmentalRegulation (DWER) completed mandatory 100 day testing period on 11.05.21.
Located 110km north of Perth CBD.
Annual licensed capacity 150,000 tonne,commercial landfill charges $150 per tonne. Potential revenue $22.5m at 30%margin will produce $6.75m EBITDA *Major cost Landfill levy rates $70 pertonne. Waste gate fee based on Millar Road Landfill facility $162 pertonne (55km south of Perth)
Implied Net Tangible Assets per share of 10.6c per June 2021 presentation.At 80% discount, 2.1c same as SP as of 06.08.21. Now we are at 70% discount
Listed on December 2019 IPO $0.2 MC$46.6m EV $33.4m. Looking at the SP chart it is a truly shocker, with thelatest RI where SOE has doubled the MC has effectively improved from $5m- $6msince July. 2 years later we will have a working landfill and Maddington backto profitability and improving further.
WA Gov is weak in tackling criminal enterprise in illegal dumping to avoidLandfill levy rates of $70 per tonne and affecting Maddington facility'sperformance. Refer to an article in WAtoday "Criminal dumps rotting inWA’s South West as state bleeds $100 million a year”. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/criminal-dumps-rot-in-wa-s-south-west-as-state-bleeds-100-million-a-year-20210323-p57dee.html
Launch of Access Waste –cloud-based waste management and logistics platform
50-50 JV with iHub technologies,M8S to spend $351k over 18 months
WHY: generation of waste volumes
HOW: signing up vendors/wasteproducers on subscription model
WHAT: Platform will provideprice transparency, compliance monitoring and reporting standard. Physicalonsite loader/bin and compactor unit for capture vendor waste.
What the future looks like: as morevendors sign up to the model, Access Waste will initially sign up additionalindependent skip bins operators to provide physical bins to meet demand, asmentioned in the presentation “Uber style”. As business grow in see opportunityin a franchise model if M8S has no desire to own a fleet of trucks and bins.
A few final thoughts
I have reached out to couple of experts andtheir primary concern is with the management's competency. The business hasdestroyed its SP, significant revenue reduction at Maddington and jaded a lotof shareholders.
CEO Tomasz Jacek Rudas – 2009 EY Entrepreneur ofthe year, 2 companies under his management were in Voluntary AdministrationAnaeCo and Aurigen, the previous version of M8S
However I wish to give this management thebenefit of doubt
1. COVID
2. AnaeCo's main asset which was Tomasz's brainchild and it remain in operation
3. Main shareholder owns circa 35% of shares entrustedTomasz to remain in charge of this ship after the failed venture of Aurigen.
4. based on interview with Alan Kohler allsenior secured lender were paid 100 cents on the dollar and all unsecuredlenders given equity in M8S. A sign of integrity to me. Please google"Ëureka Report: Is M8 Sustainable or a Phoenix operation?"
5. Chairman Mark Robert Puzey CA 30 years. 33years at KPMG and 18 years as partner – audit, governance, strategy andmanagement consultancy.
6. One can hope that WA Govt will eventuallycrack down on illegal dumping
For transparency I first came across this opportunity at RI at 2 cents which Idid not participate. My entry was 08.06.21 at $0.021 then topped up at $0.031after the Launch of Access Waste.
I have been conservative in my calculation, with $8m annual EBITDA I expect MC to be at minimal $40m which is still $16m less than the value of Gingin alone (Freehold going concern value of $56m)
I completed above based on my personal research and ASX announcements. Noadvice and always do your own research!
Further background reading
disallowed link/investment-news/is-m8-sustainable-or-a-phoenix-operation/146581
