could move up soon, page-14

Hi cgt,

You have still done very well with your average around the $1.50 per share as we have still a far way to go imho.

I have been blowing the BIOTA trumpet since it was around the 50 cents and pointed out to all, who wanted to listen that it was the right time to get back into Biota.

At that time I could see that Biota was getting a new lease on life, with the increased reports of tamiflu resistance in the media.

Those early days was hard on this forum as we only had continues management bashing posts, but not many forward looking posts and the potential that once again was emerging with this company.

Portable and Thunderbird and some others, where the exeptions, and had also seen these first positive signs of change emerging for the company.

The sad outcome of the settlement with GSK had created a of bitter taste im most shareholders at the time, who had expected, rightfully imho, much more.

But again Gilead had the likes like Rumsfeld as a corner investor and had far more power in their negotiations with Roche then Biota would ever had.

What the Biota story does show us now is that, given the right circumstances, a company can come back out of the dog house and become a stellar performer.

Biota is a prime example, when Relenza went to the market first with barely a competitor, the shareprice went up to the $10 mark.
Then Tamiflu took the lead, due to GSK lack of support, and the shareprice went down to levels of under the 50 cents.

Only the emerging of birdflu gave us new hope and the share price reached the above $2 mark.
I was hoping during that time that Relenza would be better promoted and that GSK would be forced to produce more, but this did not happen.
Tamiflu was still getting the market share of any stockpiling and Relenza was lacking behind.

So I sold out as I could see that the story still has not changed for Relenza and made some good profits along the way.
Although the settlement was first an incentive to hold for me, but I realised that Biota would be a very risky investment on the settlement alone, and I decided as many others did, to move on.

Because of my prevous experience with Biota and the realisation that Relenza would never win from Tamiflu, I stayed on the sidelines but always kept an eye on Biota.

It was only when I started to see more and more reports coming up in the media, of Tamiflu resistance, that I knew this was the chance for Biota to become the market darling once again.

So I started to buy into Biota again and kept following all the latest developments closely and kept adding to my holding as the good news came in.

And now with Tamiflu basically gone, and we are still only in the early stages, Relenza will be the sole antiviral with a proven track record on the market.

The situation with GSK has now changed, Biota has reached a settlement and GSK has now a new CEO who is giving more support to Relenza.
GSK has now dramatically increased production to levels we could previous only dream of and Relenza is gaining rapidly marketshare in the antiviral market.

GSK is making now an ever increasing part of their revenue from Relenza and it has now become a major earner in their portfolio and will certainly get the appropriate support.

So from a Relenza point alone this company is well worth investing in again, as all have changed and this time the competitor, who had always bogged Relenza down, is wounded badly and standing on its last leg fighting for survival.

But Relenza alone is not good enough any longer, as the good story will end in 4 years or so, as patents run out.

But before the patensts for relenza run out, we have the next proven antiviral that will grap the market share, being Lani or now with the new name Laninamavir.

A blockbuster drug that has proven to be working excellent against both the commonflu and swineflu, with only one puffer needed for every 7 days.

It will probably be in the Japanese market by next year and will start paying Biota undisclosed payements when certain milestone in sales for that country have been achieved.

With the current Tamiflu resistance and the lack of any new antivirals like Relenza , we will have a big chance that Lani will be fast tracked for the western Markets.

Just remember the US has been partly financing this drug in its development stages and could well be looking at fast tracking Lani as we speak.

The market for Lani will be huge and a upfront payement by a big Pharma to Biota and DS, running in excess of $100 million can be anticipated imho.

Next to Lani and Relenza we have the drugs that are in the pipeline like the HRV (common cold infection) which is now clinical proven in phase IIa.

Biota is now very much de-risked as an investment, not just only because of Relenza, being the only standing antiviral in the fight against verious flu strains and the swine flu, but also because of the new drugs biota has.

We have LANI that is now ready to go into a hungry Japanese market and ready to be Partnered off to a big Pharma for the rest of the world market.

We have the pipeline drugs with HRV being closest to commercial development and we have a tremedous amount of Cash coming in, on top of the pile of cash they have stacked away so far.

Before the end of this year we can expect a capital return ( one of the many to come??) of 11 cts per share.

Biota has now all the signs of a drug company that has matured and will look for aquisitions in the near future to compliment its products.

Could this be the new CSL on the ASX????

Biota certainly will have the cash and cashflow to build a serious drug development company and have already anounced plans of doing so.


Good luck to all

jojo