lynas v arafura, page-35

kalmsg, great summary ...

Assuming FIRB approves the Lynas proposal presently before it then ...

259 M share on issue for Arafura

verses

1,355, M share on issue for Lynas

and

$296 M revenue for Arafura

verses

$200 M revenue for Lynas

Whilst Lynas will be in production first, it is very evident from the numbers Lynas shareholders have suffered massive dilution to get there.

Arafura on the other hand will benefit significantly from a higher share price (come the time they need to raise finance for production) thanks to the new focus on rare earth stocks and their re-rating significantly higher.

Hence the dilution to Arafura shareholders should be much less and also projected income approximately 50% greater than Lynas.

Presently Lynas has 5.22 times more shares on issue than Arafura - lets assume (guess) it ends up only being 2 times (due to the much higher share prices Arafura will be able to raise money at for production - also partial debt funding is a serious option - look at GXY).

It ain't hard to see which of the two stock has more upside