Buddy,
you dont get approval for a 15mtpa plant and then build it all in one year. It is a phased approach. I am sure you know this, but I feel the need to point it out as people sometimes talk a little whimsically about the size of these plants and how easy it may be to build them.
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=948553&msgno=4307982
With over 5000PJ 2P expected by December, they already have their first train well and trully covered and are on the path to the second. The supply agreements they have in place suggest they will be gunning for the necessary reserves to underpin the second train. They could stop there and this would give them a 7.5 mtpa facility which is still pretty impressive.
They had large and high quality acreage that they acquired with Roma, QGC, SHG and Pure. I hear what you are saying though, what says they are going to stop at four chomps of the cherry. Who knows. Limiting factors for BG are supply agreements, POO, resource development and reserve conversion. Looking at the numbers again it is not to hard to convince myself that BG are still a serious predator as you said above. Good refresher I think.
Exciting times ahead. Place your bets.
Cheers,
SF
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