Back to the theme of the thread.
Apologies if I have missed any major catalysts, but I believe all of the big ones likely to drop before the end of the year are listed.
Is it still possible for NVA to get to $1 between now and 01/01/2022?
The short answer is no. I think we may be closer to $0.25 or $0.30c
IF milestones and are met, but $1 is certainly a bridge too far as shares on issue, untimely results, company and wider market sentiment and share price momentum are all currently against the company.
As per the announcement today,
there are about 1,923,000,000 shares on issue after this raise.This means we would need a $1.9b market cap to hit $1 per share (fully diluted)
Major catalysts are:
M&I and resource upgrade at KorbelWhat is the probability of a grade increase?
From 0.3g/t to 0.4g/t
I would have to say very / 90% high confidence. It would mean our 4.6m oz resource would be closer to 6m oz.
On a good day, if our ounces are valued at $45/oz, MC would be ~$270m
or $0.14cpsFrom 0.3g/t to 0.5g/t
Much lower, and whilst there are "blowout zones", but I would have to estimate a 40% chance the whole resource would be upgraded to this grade. It would mean our 4.6m oz resource would be closer to 7.5m oz
Using $45/oz as above, MC would be ~$340m
or $0.18cpsFrom 0.3g/t to 0.6g/t
Pretty much 0% chance of this happening, it does not appear the grades are there. If this was the case however, it would mean our resource is closer to 9m oz.
And never going to happen, but MC would be ~$405m
or $0.21cpsResource Extension Drilling at Korbel
Increase the strike length from 1.8kms by 1.5kms to a total of 3.3kms is an increase of 83%.
If we can maintain grade increases, we could have the following valuations.
0.4g/t @ 3.3km strike = $495m or $0.26cps
0.5g/t @ 3.3km strike = $622m or $0.32cps
0.6g/t @ 3.3km strike = $740m or $0.39cps (but not happening)
Scoping Study
There is a lot of conjecture around the impact this could have, and some suggestion is it could be negative until perhaps more in depth studies have been completed.
I will leave this out as it is entirely unknown.
RPM
Maiden Resource due for the end of the year.
As per one of my previous posts, some confusion around the drilling campaign. Phase 1 was supposed to be 12 holes, but the latest interview from Chris said there were 6 holes drilled, and it was unclear as to whether that was in total or addition to the 3 that had been drilled previously.
Grades seem solid, but a small drill campaign, so let's say 1m oz @ $50/oz = $50m or $0.025 cps
As I said "chasing unicorns" because for all of the delays with Korbel, for a reduced drilling campaign, and only $0.025cps
Snow Lake
View the Snow Lake thread, but suggestions that NVAs share would be worth about $65m USD or A$90m.
This has a lot of potential to increase, but no major catalysts expected by the end of the year, in fact I am not entirely confident it will be listed and traded on the NASDAQ by the end of the year (need to roadshow and raise and not doubt a thousand other things).
Let's say the IPO is approved, and we apply a 50% discount, so perhaps a $50m increase in NVA share price or $0.025cps
Comparing these
|
| 0.4g/t | 0.5g/t | 0.6g/t (not happening) |
|---|
| 1 | Resource | $270m or $0.14 cps | $340m or $0.18cps | $405m or $0.21cps |
|---|
| 2 | Extension | $495m or $0.26 cps | $622m or $0.32cps | $740m or $0.39cps |
|---|
| 3 | Scoping Study | N/A | N/A | N/A |
|---|
| 4 | RPM | $50m or $0.025 cps | $50m or $0.025 cps | $50m or $0.025 cps |
|---|
| 5 | Snow Lake | $50m or $0.025 cps | $50m or $0.025 cps | $50m or $0.025 cps |
|---|
| 6 | Total - no extension
and
Total - with extension | $370m or $0.19 cps
to
$595m or $0.31 cps | $440m or $0.23 cps
to
$722m or $0.38 cps | $505m or $0.26 cps
to
$840m or $0.44 cps |
|---|
(20min delay)