Given the size of the prize here...
Dilution to raise $30m for "pivotal" DMD trial will be a drop in the ocean.
DMD opportunity alone will propel ANP to a mid tier Pharma....
IF....we go all the way.
I'm including DMD, LGMD, Beckers, and other MD indications.
Great discussion over the weekend re valuations.
- George is penciling in
high side over $40.
- Sammy is aligning to Sarepta valuation (rightly so)...eyeballing
ABOVE $19.
- Itsa is targeting
over $5 in the next 12 - 18 months.
- Wayne's hitting the research to better understand the proteomics data...TBA!
My first reaction is:
Tell them their dreaming.....WHAT ABOUT ALL THE RISK??
Then when we scratch under the hood to analyze the risks...we see rainbows
REASONS TO BELIEVE
1. For DMD - treats 100% of the population - $7B market opportunity by 2030.
2. DMD P2A data showed incredible efficacy results - stopped disease progression!
3. Our successful P2A endpoints have been accepted by FDA and EMA.
4. One 12 month study to accelerated approval in EMA.
5. ATL1102 also completed successful P2 MS program - incredible amount of safety data.
6. New MD indications (LGMD / Beckers) can go straight to P2.
7. The only biotech targeting CD49d to combat inflammation.
8.
Novel MoA....FIRST IN CLASS and BEST IN CLASS
9. Patents in the bag.
10. ODD in EMA / FDA provide DMD market protection for 7 to 10 years.
11. Proteomics data says
BIG opportunities with Diabetes, Asthma, Heart Disease, Cancer.
12. Ex CSL Chief Medical Officer as Chair and key US domain expert and on the Board.
13. Gene Therapy will not be a short to medium term help for DMD boys.
14. Competitive tension between Pfizer and Sarepta in DMD space will be tailwind for ANP.
15. Prof Voit as PI for EMA trial ??? (Diamond interview in March).
So, now we await the finance decision.
Big Pharma partnership with $200m upfront would be nice...in exchange for US market.
Tell Uboy he's dreaming! ANP only has $4m in the bank.
Well, if the 3 major Gene Therapy flops in 2021 didn't occur - I would agree.
BUT...Sarepta, Pfizer, Roche etc need get some ROI from their DMD programs.
For Sarepta - i believe it's existential...FDA still wants missing efficacy data for Exondys51.
The DMD game is changing before Big Pharma's eyes.
ANP will lock up the space with their ODD protection for the next 7 to 10 years...
With
FIRST IN CLASS and
BEST IN CLASS therapeutics!
So, $19....$40....???
Not sure we'll be around to reach those lofty figures, history is against us.
Certainly won't get much change out of a
5 x revenue valuation....before M&A.
So $10 for M&A after successful P2B...is my prediction.
If we stay independent, then off to NASDAQ and the $40 target George mentions.
Crystal ball stuff - but - we have great tailwinds.
Remember: novel MoA...and the only Biotech targeting CD49d for inflammation.
FIRST IN CLASS and BEST IN CLASS.
.
(20min delay)