BHP 0.85% $43.80 bhp group limited

BHP/WPL MERGER LIKELY $14 outcome.

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    If bhp and WPL merge

    BHP MARKET CAP 186 BILLION
    realistic valuation 80 billion.
    Shares 5 billion


    WPL MARKET CAP 26 BILLION
    realistic valuation 6 billion
    Shares 1 billion.

    Different scenarios after merger with 6 billion shares on issue
    1. If there is a merger based on today's market cap186+26 billion
    $35 after merger
    2 WPL market cap of 6 billion
    $32 SHARE likely future outcome.
    3. if we reduce the market cap of both to 86 billion
    $14 share possible outcome when iron ore is at $30 ton.
    4 Iron ore crashes and a rally on petrochemicals.
    $17 share as Bhp takes a 80 billion hit.

    Summary
    One or both will cause the merged share price to devalue to a certain level.
    BHP based on an iron ore crash. WPL because its highly over valued paying only 2% return which will result in an automatic market devaluation.



    Last edited by david25: 11/10/21
 
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