If bhp and WPL merge
BHP MARKET CAP 186 BILLION
realistic valuation 80 billion.
Shares 5 billion
WPL MARKET CAP 26 BILLION
realistic valuation 6 billion
Shares 1 billion.
Different scenarios after merger with 6 billion shares on issue
1. If there is a merger based on today's market cap186+26 billion $35 after merger
2 WPL market cap of 6 billion $32 SHARE likely future outcome.
3. if we reduce the market cap of both to 86 billion $14 share possible outcome when iron ore is at $30 ton.
4 Iron ore crashes and a rally on petrochemicals. $17 share as Bhp takes a 80 billion hit.
Summary
One or both will cause the merged share price to devalue to a certain level.
BHP based on an iron ore crash. WPL because its highly over valued paying only 2% return which will result in an automatic market devaluation.
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- BHP/WPL MERGER LIKELY $14 outcome.
BHP/WPL MERGER LIKELY $14 outcome.
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