Hi qwet0,
here is my back of the envelope calculations... There are some assumptions that could go here or there, but I tried to be realistic. (I assumed price of Lithium to be $US26000 (It is currently over $27,000), I assumed a PE of 10, when for a high growth company it could be 20, etc...
I ignored the NPV calculations for simplicity. I did not include the cost of expansion to 12,000. I also did not include any tax or accounting benefits.
I ignored Tonopah. I also ignored the potential for updated and expanded JORC.
According to this, the fair value today would be around the $0.30. The fair value when approvals and funding for the 12,000t plant are announced should be closer to the $1.90 (minus the funding costs and time implications of NPV)
But this is give you an idea of my own thinking. I'm heavily invested in this company and believe it is a life changing investment.
@GCar I mentioned the omissions of the price of lithium factor because i was talking to a friend last night, and went through the preso with him and found myself having to show him the Lithium price and the implications on AGY. That was the only piece of info that I needed out of the preso. It would have been a single chart, and would have improved the content of the preso. I was not comparing AGY to others nor was I criticising the company... just making an observation.
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| Assumptions | 2022 | 2024 |
| current price |
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| Lithium price |
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| $27,000 |
| Check current price of Lithium Carbonate 99.5% in CNY (convert to US$) at |
| 2022 | $26,000 |
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| Lithium Carbonate 99.5% price in CNY |
| 2024 |
| $26,000 |
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| Assumption ignores Tonopah project, and only considers the existing 2,000KT plant and the proposed expansion to 12,000KT plant. Assumption also ignores the funding costs to build the 12,000KT plant. |
| Production cost per tonne |
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| for 2,000KT | $5,500 |
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| for 12,000KT |
| $4,645 |
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| The 12,000KT plant permitting approval is expected in late 2021, with construction to begin in 2022/ Anticipated to begin operation on 1st January 2024 |
| PE Ratio (Range 10-20) | 10 |
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| Current Share Price | 0.185 |
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| Potential for increased JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) - indicated resource of 245,120t Li2CO3 at vertical depth of 102.5m. Additional exploration target of 262,000 to 479,000t contained Li2CO3 within depth interval of 102-300m below ground level. Combined JORC estimates outline potential for 507,000 to 724,000t to a depth of 300m. Brine acquifer still open at depth with potential for further drilling, expansion and project life. |
| Shares on offer SOO | 1,250,271,704 |
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| Current Market Cap | $231,300,265 |
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| Puna Profit | 10% |
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| Argentina Tax | 25% |
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| US$/AUD$ | 0.73 |
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| 2000Kt plant is 40% complete, fully funded, on schedule. First production mid 2022 |
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| July 2022 | July 2024 |
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| Sentinel Satellite Image of Rincon Project |
| Output Tonnes pa | 2,000 | 12,000 |
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| Gross Revenue in US$ | $52,000,000 | $312,000,000 |
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| Weaker Australian $ increases profit in AUD |
| Operating Costs in US$ | $11,000,000 | $55,740,000 |
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| Profit in US$ | $41,000,000 | $256,260,000 |
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| minus | 10% to Puna Mining | $4,100,000 | $25,626,000 |
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| minus | Tax Argentina (25%) | $9,225,000 | $57,658,500 |
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| After Tax in US$ | $27,675,000 | $172,975,500 |
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| After Tax in AUD$ | $37,910,959 | $236,952,740 |
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| PE multiple | $379,109,589 | $2,369,527,397 |
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| divide | Divide by SOO - Fair value per share | $0.30 | $1.90 |
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(20min delay)