To emphasise - this is all highly speculative. You must do your own research & analysis and then make your own investment decisions.
A speculative Discounted Cashflow scenario for Korbel current 4.7 Moz Resource is calculated using assumptions below. Production profile is based on LOM average 150 koz pa, with plant capacity at 200 koz pa to allow for larger volume of ounces produced in the first 3-7 years. This would provide spare capacity for future production to be sourced from other deposits (e.g. RPM).
A LOM average or steady-state earnings before tax is calculated and this is adjusted to be at a more conservative pre-tax profit margin in the first 3 years of production, with costs/margins then reaching steady-state levels.
A few comments on the key assumptions:
- Gold price is fixed at USD $1,600
(note that DEG used gold price AUD $2,400 or USD $1,782 in their scoping study, Probe Metals used USD $1,500) - Capital intensity for the process plant is based on the CAPEX figures for Probe Metals @ USD $1,379 per ounce. This is similar to Marathon Gold at USD $1,324 per ounce.
- Discount rate 5% is used ( as used by DEG, BGL and Probe Metals in their recent studies)
- Assuming 65% conversion of resource to reserve (which is achievable for this type of deposit), I estimate a reserve of 3.05 Moz can eventually be achieved. Allowing for recoveries this would support a Life of Mine production target of 2.3 Moz.
- I've assumed 150,000 koz average production ( 200,000 koz peak ) for a more achievable CAPEX for future funding.
These are the key figures generated by my speculative model at USD $1,600 gold:
- Pre-tax NPV (5%) for NVA's 85% share at AUD $925M (USD $687M) and pre-tax IRR 26%
- Post-tax NPV (5%) for NVA's 85% share at AUD $455M (USD $338M) and post-tax IRR 26%
On an (I think) conservative post-tax NPV discounted cashflow basis that values the potential future cashflows at Estelle from $0.25 per share.
That's excluding:
- future resource growth for the Korbel deposit
- future maiden resource for the RPM deposit
- other key targets / prospects at Estelle
- NVA's share of Snow Lake
- NVA's share of RotorX
- NVA's share of Torian Resources
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