Thanks for sharing.
I'm always fascinated by analysts forecasts on commodity prices, be it oil, copper, iron ore, cubic zirconia, whatever.
eg this article has UBS and RBC forecasting average 2021 Brent of 68.5 & 67.5.
I really don't think some analysts understand the maths behind averages. I'm not sure they consider the front-month(s) leading in, which is pretty blody important. You can't really look at a year in isolation because prices are rolled over.
Example: assume Brent holds 85 through to 31 December. 2022 comes and Brent loses 2% every single month so 82.45, 79.98, 77.58 etc. By Dec we're at 58.98 but that's still only an annual average of $70. Without another black swan even it's just not possible as prices would have to undershoot the average for most of the year.
TLDR - calling BS on these Brent price targets.
WPL@$30, page-2440
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