20c + close and we have a breakout - Target 27-30c, page-53

That kind of reasoning works on a stock, not on futures.
You implicitly assume that the whole market is punters, which is most often not.

Consumption happens in the prompt and drives prompt prices.
If future is -say- 10$ higher and the cost of storage is $4, a physical buyer would buy spot, sell future and pocked risk-free profit (excluding operational risks...).
That's a carry trade and it's a very powerful driver of prices and drives most commodity markets, and much easier to allocate capital to that than a pure speculative trade.

Depending on the product you can have more/less carry and more/less speculators or forward hedges, but it's the structure that drives future prices, not the other way around.
Again, depends which product you're talking, but structure and storage comes first.